摘要
基于温度、降水、光照等指标,通过利用区域气候模式所预估的分辨率为1°(纬度)×1°(经度)的未来气候预估数据,对1981~2005年的基准期和RCP4.5、RCP8.5两排放情景下2069~2098年中国热量资源以及冬小麦种植界限、理论生育期和气候适宜种植分区的空间分布特征进行了对比分析。研究主要结论为:与基准期相比,两未来气候变化情景下我国热量资源、冬小麦种植条件与气候适宜性差异显著。且相比于RCP4.5情景,在RCP8.5情景下中国2069~2098年多数地区热量资源增加、冬小麦种植北界和南界北移东扩、可种植面积扩大,多数区域理论适宜播种期推迟、理论成熟期提前、潜在生长季缩短,且潜在生长季内的光—温—水配置使得冬小麦气候适宜性有所提高。但由于冬小麦为喜凉作物,对高温胁迫非常敏感,RCP8.5情景下更多的极端高温天气和不对称增温等因素带来的负面影响很可能抵消前述光—温—水配置所带来的有利影响,从而降低冬小麦的种植适宜性。因此,未来研究工作仍应致力于减缓气候变化,以保障我国粮食生产的安全。
By adopting future climate projection data with a resolution of 1°(latitude)×1°(longitude)driven by regional climate models during the base period from 1981 to 2005 and from 2069 to 2098 under representative concentration pathway(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 along with temperature,radiation,and precipitation indicators,the spatial distribution characteristics of thermal resources,planting boundary,theoretical growth period,and climatically suitable region of winter wheat in China were analyzed and compared under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The main findings of this study are as follows:Compared with the base period,there were significant differences in China’s thermal resources,winter wheat planting conditions,and climatically suitable region under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.Most importantly,compared with RCP4.5,the thermal resources are projected to increase in most areas in China during 2069–2098 under RCP8.5.The northern and southern boundaries of winter wheat are projected to move northward and eastward;and therefore,the cultivable area would consequently increase.In most areas,the theoretically suitable sowing date would be delayed,theoretical maturity date would shift to an earlier date and,as a result,the potential growing season would be shortened.Meanwhile,allocation of radiation-temperature-precipitation in the potential growing season improved the climate suitability of winter wheat.However,because winter wheat is a chimonophilous crop that is sensitive to high-temperature stress,the negative effects under RCP8.5,such as extremely hot weather and asymmetric warming,are likely to offset the favorable effects of the allocation of radiation-temperature-precipitation mentioned above;thus probably reducing the planting suitability of winter wheat.Therefore,future research should be devoted to mitigating climate change in order to ensure the security of China’s food production.
作者
李柯欣
郑飞
高学杰
LI Kexin;ZHENG Fei;GAO Xuejie(International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;Climate Change Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期105-122,共18页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
中国科学院前沿科学重点研究计划项目ZDBS-LY-DQC010
国家自然科学基金项目41876012、41861144015。