基于博弈论组合赋权的油气场站安全脆弱性SD仿真

SD simulation on safety vulnerability of oil and gas stations based on combination weighting of game theory

油气场站因其储运介质的特殊性而具有较高的危险性。为深入探讨油气场站安全脆弱性的影响机理,建立油气场站安全脆弱性系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)模型,通过博弈论组合赋权对场站安全系统影响因子权重赋值,并以某实际场站为例,设定不同的安全投入方案,分析其安全脆弱性并提出脆弱性控制建议。结果表明:设备系统对该场站暴露度的影响程度最高;管理系统对敏感度的影响最为显著,同时对暴露度影响也较大;人员系统则对适应度起主导作用。实际运行中可通过改进生产与消防设备以降低安全系统暴露度,强化监督监管、完善管理系统以降低敏感度,增强安全教育培训、强化员工系统以提升适应度,从而降低场站安全脆弱性。研究成果可为油气场站安全管理提供技术指导。(图5,表2,参22)

Oil and gas stations are at high risks due to the particularity of the medium stored and transported therein. In order to explore the influence mechanism of its safety vulnerability, a System Dynamics(SD) model was established for the safety vulnerability of the oil and gas stations, and the influence factors of the station safety system were weighted through the combination weighting of game theory. Moreover, by setting different safety input schemes for a station, the safety vulnerability was analyzed and appropriate suggestions for vulnerability control were proposed. The results show that the equipment system is the most influencing for the exposure, the management system has a greatest effect on the sensitivity and greater effect on the exposure, and the personnel system plays a leading role on adaptation degree of the stations. In actual operation, the exposure of safety system can be reduced by improving the production and firefighting equipment,the sensitivity can be lowered by strengthening the supervision and perfecting the management system, and the adaptation degree can be enhanced by increasing the safety education and training, as well as upgrading the staff system. Thus, the safety vulnerability of the stations can be reduced. Conclusively, the research results could provide technical guidance for safety management of the oil and gas stations.(5 Figures, 2 Tables, 22 References)