大保护背景下中国三大流域生态效率评价与影响因素研究

Research on Ecological Efficiency Evaluation and Influencing Factors of China’s Three Major River Basins Under the Background of Great Protection

运用DEA交叉评价模型、水资源约束模型以及加权GLS回归方法,考察了中国三大流域生态效率的非均衡分布及差异性,分别选取黄河、长江以及珠江三大流域22个省市为研究对象,对各流域2008-2018年生态效率及其水资源约束强度和影响因素进行了对比分析,结果显示:①整体而言,三大流域生态效率处于中低水平。②三大流域的生态效率水平差异性明显,由高到低依次为珠江、长江、黄河;且经济与生态之间的相互作用不同,黄河流域的经济增长仍在以牺牲一定的生态环境为代价,而珠江流域的经济增长可促进环境改善。③水资源供给限制会促进黄河和长江流域生态效率的增长,但对珠江流域生态效率的增长具有明显的抑制作用。能源结构和流域治理能力对三大流域生态效率的提升均具有显著影响。另外,影响黄河生态效率的主要因素还有产业结构;经济发展水平和外资利用程度的提高对长江生态效率的促进作用较大。据此提出应改善能源结构、合理规划水利设施建设及调配水资源供给限制等措施,以促进各流域生态效率提升。

This paper studies the unbalanced distribution and difference of ecological efficiency in three major River basins by cross DEA evaluation model,water resources constraint model and weighted GLS regression.And then,it compares and analyzes the ecological efficiency of three River basin from 2008 to 2018,its water resources constraint intensity and influence factors,based on taking 22 provinces and cities from the Yellow River,the Yangtze River and the Pearl River as the object.Results show that,firstly,overall,the ecological efficiency of the three major Rivers is in the middle or low level.The ecological efficiency of the three basins are significantly different,with the order of the Pearl River,the Yangtze River.Secondly,the interactions between the economy and ecology of three basins is different.The economic growth of the Yellow River basin is still destroying the ecological environment as the cost,while the economic growth of the Pearl River Basin can promote environmental improvement.Thirdly,water resource supply restriction will promote the growth of ecological efficiency in the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River basin,but it has an obvious inhibitory effect on the growth of ecological efficiency in the Pearl River Basin.Energy structure and basin governance capacity have significant effects on the improvement of ecological efficiency in the three basins.In addition,another factor affecting the ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin is industrial structure.The improvement of the level of economic development and the degree of foreign capital utilization has a significant effect on the ecological efficiency of the Yangtze River Basin.Based on the above,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,improving energy structure,rationally planning water conservancy facilities construction and appropriately deploy water resources supply restrictions,so as to promote the improvement of the ecological efficiency of each basin.