汇率变动对我国水产品加工贸易影响实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the China′s Aquatic Products Processing Trade

在对外贸易体系中,我国的水产品贸易具有不可替代的作用和地位,而水产品加工贸易提供了强有力的动力。但近10年来水产品加工贸易发展受阻,考虑到汇率对于国际贸易活动有着巨大的影响,本文通过理论与实证分析相结合,研究汇率变动与我国水产品加工贸易的关系,并给出相关建议:(1)对汇率波动形成预期,合理规避汇率风险;(2)调整产业结构,转变对外贸易方式;(3)注重外资引入,打开新市场;(4)制定发展战略,发挥比较优势;(5)促进贸易转型升级,加强创新抵御风险。

In the entire foreign trade system,the China’s aquatic product trade has an irreplaceable role and status,and the aquatic product processing trade also provides a strong impetus in its development process.However,the development of aquatic product processing trade has been hindered in the past ten years.Considering that the exchange rate has a huge impact on international trade activities,this paper combines the theory and empirical analysis to study the relationship between exchange rate changes and China’s aquatic product processing trade,and gives relevant suggestions:①Form expectations for exchange rate fluctuations,and reasonably avoid exchange rate risks;②Adjust the industrial structure,and transform foreign trade methods;③Focus on the introduction of foreign capital and open new markets;④Formulate development strategies and give play to comparative advantages;⑤Promote and trade transformation and upgrading,and strengthen innovation to resist risks.