杠杆周期、信贷资源配置效率与货币政策调控

Leverage Cycle, Efficiency of Credit Resource Allocation, and Monetary Policy Regulation

金融危机以来,我国杠杆周期与经济周期出现明显背离,特别是非金融企业部门的杠杆水平不仅在所有经济部门中最高,且其杠杆攀升速度也远快于其他部门,这其中潜藏的风险点值得关注和研究。本文依据预算软约束定义构建模型,分析影响非金融企业信贷资源配置的供需因素,基于信贷配给模型和动态博弈模型对信贷资源配置与杠杆周期的关系进行理论分析和模拟计算,并从货币政策感受和货币政策工具两个维度实证分析货币政策对信贷资源配置的调控效果以及对预算软约束负面影响的纠偏作用。

In the years following the 2008 international financial crisis, China’s leverage cycle has clearly deviated from the economic cycle. In particular, the leverage level of non-financial enterprises has topped all other sectors of the economy and its growth has outpaced other sectors as well. The potential risks deserve further attention and research. Taking soft budget constraints as its starting point, this paper makes an analysis of supply and demand factors and how they affect the allocation of credit resources of non-financial enterprises. Relying on a credit rationing model and a dynamic game model, this paper makes a theoretical analysis and simulation calculation of the relationship between the allocation of credit resources and the leverage cycle. It makes an empirical analysis of the impact of monetary policy on the allocation of credit resources and looks at how monetary policy corrects the negative impact of soft budget constraints.