港口物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于辽宁省2005-2019年数据

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Port Logistics and Foreign Trade——Based on the Data of Liaoning Province from 2005 to 2019

文中用辽宁省港口货物吞吐量和外贸进出口总额作为辽宁省港口物流和对外贸易发展的指标,以辽宁省2005-2019年的数据为例,通过VAR模型、脉冲响应和方差分析等方法进行实证研究。结果表明:辽宁省港口物流的发展和对外贸易之间相互促进,并且彼此之间的短期作用明显,但长期促进作用并不明显,且港口物流的发展对对外贸易的依赖程度要远远大于对外贸易对港口物流的依赖程度。据此对辽宁省港口物流和对外贸易发展提出加工贸易升级战略、推进智慧港口建设等对策建议。

The port cargo throughput and total imports and exports of foreign trade of Liaoning province are used as indicators of port logistics and foreign trade development in Liaoning province. Taking the data of Liaoning province from 2005 to2019 as an example,the empirical research is conducted through VAR model,impulse response,variance analysis and other rnethods,and the results show that the development of port logistics in Liaoning province and foreign trade promotes mutually,and the short-term effect between each other is obvious. The boost,however,in the view of long-term is not so apparent as the short-term one,and the development of port logistics depends on foreign trade is much more than foreign trade dose on port logistics.Consequently,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the development of port logistics and foreign trade in Liaoning province,which are upgrading strategy of processing trade,promoting the construction of smart ports,etc.