基于五元半偏减法集对势的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价

Assessment of Regional Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on Five-element Semipartial Subtraction Set Pair Potential

农业旱灾脆弱性动态评价对保障区域农业可持续发展具有重要意义。为分析农业旱灾脆弱性评价子系统及指标的发展趋势,识别影响区域农业旱灾脆弱性变化的主要因素,提出了一种联系数伴随函数——五元半偏减法集对势,据此建立了区域农业旱灾脆弱性动态评价方法,在蚌埠市应用结果表明:蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性评价系统中的暴露子系统2001—2010年总体由均势转向偏反势,向着集对势降低的方向发展,农业旱灾脆弱性呈增强趋势,其中,对蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性变化影响较大的指标为复种指数,且复种指数存在向反势发展的趋势;灾损敏感性子系统发展趋势波动较大,2001—2010年逐渐由偏反势发展到偏同势,评估结果呈现逐年向好趋势,其中,单位农业增加值耗水量的减少使得蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性有较为明显的改善;防灾减灾能力子系统在2001—2009年处于偏反势,2009年之后逐渐稳定为均势,脆弱性状况呈缓慢改善趋势,其中,影响脆弱性的主要指标有节水灌溉率、农民人均GDP。本研究可为改善区域农业旱灾脆弱性状况提供科学的决策依据,也可为解决复杂系统多等级问题提供新的有效途径。

The agricultural drought vulnerability dynamic assessment is of great significance for the sustainable development of regional agriculture.In order to analyze the development trend of agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation subsystem and indexes,and identify the main indexes that affect the change of regional agricultural drought vulnerability,an adjoint function of connection number,which was the five-element semipartial subtraction set pair potential was constructed.Then,a dynamic evaluation model of regional agricultural drought vulnerability was established,application results of Bengbu City showed that,in the agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation system of Bengbu City,the overall trend of exposure subsystem from 2001 to 2010 was fluctuated between the symmetrical potential and the partial inverse potential,and it was developed towards the reduction of set pair potential.The agricultural drought vulnerability showed an increasing trend,the main index that had a great impact on the vulnerability in Bengbu City was multiple cropping,and it displayed a trend to the inverse potential.Furthermore,the development of damage sensitivity subsystem was fluctuated greatly,from 2001 to 2010,it was gradually developed from the partial inverse potential to the partial identical potential,and the evaluation results showed a positive trend.The decrease of unit added value for agricultural water consumption made an obvious improvement of agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City.Moreover,in 2001—2009,the disaster prevention ability subsystem was in the partial inverse potential.After 2009,it was gradually changed to the symmetrical potential.Meanwhile,the vulnerability showed a slow improvement trend,and the primary influence factors were water-saving irrigation rate and per capita income of farmers.The research provided a scientific decision basis for improving the regional agricultural drought disasters vulnerability,and also provided an effective way to deal with the multi-level problems of complex systems.