人力资本投资激励效应对收缩城市人口外流的影响研究

THE IMPACT OF HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT INCENTIVE ON SHRINKING URBAN OUTFLOW

以城区常住人口在100万以下的194个地级市为研究对象,利用空间计量模型,从人力资本投资意愿和投资的可实现性两个维度,分析了人力资本投资对人口外流的影响。研究发现:当前收缩城市呈现经济结构转型和被动虹吸等多因素并存特征;收缩城市政府需要通过提高职工工资和降低失业率等措施,使劳动者看到教育投资的未来收益,提高人力资本投资意愿;激励个体人力资本投资对于减缓人口外流效果显著;在对收缩城市的分类讨论中,发现人力资本投资意愿仍然显著,其中包含的失业率维度,显著影响被动虹吸类收缩城市,而工资维度则显著影响经济转型类收缩城市。得到的政策启示有:鼓励劳动力外流,加强城际互联,强化城市功能,加大教育投资和技术培训,等等。

Taking 194 prefecture-level cities with a permanent resident population of less than 1 million as the research object,using the spatial econometric model,we analyzes the impact of human capital investment on population outflow from the two dimensions of human capital investment willingness and investment realizability.The results show that the current shrinking cities present the coexistence characteristics of multiple factors such as economic structural transformation and passive siphoning.The government needs to increase the wages of employees and reduce the unemployment rate so that workers can realize the future benefits of education investment and increase their investment willingness in human capital.Encouraging individual human capital investment has a significant effect on mitigating population outflow.In the classified discussion of shrinking cities,the investment willingness in human capital is still significant.What′s more,the unemployment rate dimension significantly affects the passive siphon shrinking cities,while the wage dimension significantly affects the economic transformation shrinking cities.Policy implications include encouraging labor outflow,strengthening intercity interconnection and urban functions,increasing education investment and technical training.