中部地区制造业高质量发展时空动态及驱动因素——以河南省为例

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DYNAMICS AND DRIVING FACTORS OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL CHINA

制造业高质量发展是加快中部地区崛起步伐的关键。从效益、创新、绿色和开放等4个维度构建制造业高质量发展评价指标体系,基于改进的CRITIC-熵权法,对2010—2019年河南省及18个地市制造业高质量发展水平进行测度。在区域空间特征分析的基础上,采用系统GMM方法考察人口结构、经济规模、所有制结构以及资本投入强度等对河南省制造业高质量发展的影响。结果显示:10年来河南省制造业高质量发展水平呈波浪式上升趋势,创新、开放特征持续增强,而绿色发展仍有较大上升空间;河南省制造业高质量发展的空间格局演变具有显著的阶段性特征;在驱动因素方面,经济规模、国有控股企业资产占比的提升对河南省区域制造业高质量发展发挥着正向影响,而资本投入强度却产生了负向影响;人口结构变量对不同区域制造业发展的影响呈现出空间差异性,人口老龄化驱动制造业高质量发展的判断基本成立,劳动力成本效应和人力资本积累的作用尚未清晰显现。提升河南省制造业高质量发展,需要因地制宜,制定符合不同区域特征的差异化政策。

The high-quality development of the manufacturing industry is the key to accelerating the rise of central China.This paper constructed an evaluation index system for the manufacturing industry high-quality development from the four dimensions of efficiency,innovation,greenness and openness.We applied the improved CRITIC-entropy method to measure the high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry in Henan province and 18 cities from 2010 to 2019.Based on the analysis of regional spatial characteristics,we used the systematic GMM method to investigate the impact of population structure,economic scale,ownership structure and capital investment intensity on the high-quality development of Henan′s manufacturing industry.The results show that the high-quality development level of Henan′s manufacturing industry has shown a wave-like upward trend in the past 10 years,the characteristics of innovation and openness have been continuously strengthened,while there is still a large room for green development.The spatial pattern evolution of the manufacturing industry high-quality development in Henan province has significant phase characteristics.In terms of driving factors,the increase of economic scale and the proportion of state-owned holding enterprises assets have a positive impact on the high-quality development level of Henan′s regional manufacturing industry,while the capital investment intensity has a negative impact.The impact of population structure on the manufacturing development level in different regions shows spatial differences.The judgment that population aging driving the manufacturing industry high-quality development is basically established.The"reverse effect"of labor costs and the role of human capital accumulation have not yet clearly emerged.To improve the manufacturing industry high-quality development level in Henan province,it is necessary to formulate differentiated policies in line with different regional characteristics and local conditions.