冰冻圈变化的可预测性、不可逆性和深度不确定性

The predictability,irreversibility and deep uncertainty of cryospheric change

IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组报告对气候系统各要素的可预测性(predictability)、不可逆性(irreversibility)和深度不确定性(deep uncertainty)给出了新认识。文中基于此对全球冰冻圈变化的上述三方面加以总结和归纳。总体来看,无论何种排放情景,半球和全球尺度上冰冻圈各要素于21世纪均具有一定的可预测性,即均向融化或退化方向变化,且具有不可逆性;但在区域尺度、短时间尺度和百年以上时间尺度上,不同冰冻圈要素或因内部变率大、或因响应机制复杂而存在可逆、可预测性差乃至深度不确定性难题。

The IPCC AR6 Working Group I gives new understandings of the predictability,irreversibility and deep uncertainty of various elements of the climate system.This paper summarizes the above three aspects of cryospheric changes in global and regional scales.In general,on the hemispheric and global scales,regardless of the emission scenario,all cryospheric elements could have certain predictability in the 21st century,i.e.,they all change in the direction of melting or degradation,mostly irreversible.However,on the regional scale,short time scales and long-term commitment,different cryospheric elements may exhibit large internal variability,poor predictability and even deep uncertainty.