基于CGE模型的电力低碳转型速度调控策略研究--以粤港澳大湾区为例

Research on the speed control strategy of low carbon power transition based on CGE model-take the GBA as an example

为探讨粤港澳大湾区实现碳中和及电力低碳转型过程的供应安全,构建粤港澳大湾区动态CGE模型,设计51种情景模拟各类型发电量的年均变化幅度,以全社会福利最大化为评价指标,研究煤电退役到保底容量、煤电完全退役和气电达峰容量的最优时间节点和发展速度。结果表明:2020年煤电发电量以年均降低66亿kW∙h幅度退役到2032年保底容量,再以年均降低40亿kW∙h幅度在2045年实现完全退役;气电发电量从2020年起以年均增长61亿kW∙h的幅度在2038年达到峰值,然后以年均51亿kW∙h幅度退役到2050年保底容量1323亿kW∙h;进一步依据2020—2050年本地总发电量增速不变得到非化石电力增长速度,此种煤电、气电和非化石电力发展速度组合的经济性最优。相比基准情景,优选出的电力转型组合情景可累积促进化石能源消费量降低1.1亿tce,碳排放降低2.8亿t CO2,电力部门增加值增长238亿元,其他部门增加值增长172亿元。

In order to discuss the supply security of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)in the process of carbon neutrality and low-carbon power transition,a dynamic CGE model was built for the GBA.Fifty-one scenarios were designed to simulate the annual variation range of each type of power generation,and the maximization of social welfare was taken as the evaluation index.The optimal time node and development speed of coal power decommissioning to minimum guaranteed capacity and complete decommissioning,as well as gas power capacity to peak were studied.The results show that the coal power generation capacity will be decommissioned by 6.6 billion kW∙h per year from 2020 to the minimum guaranteed capacity in 2032,and then it will be completely decommissioned by 4.0 billion kW∙h per year in 2045.The gas-power generation capacity will increase by 6.1 billion kW∙h per year from 2020 to reach the peak in 2038,and then retire at the rate of 5.1 billion kW∙h per year to maintain a minimum guaranteed capacity of 132.3 billion kW∙h in 2050.Further,according to the constant growth rate of local total electricity generation from 2020 to 2050,the growth rate of non-fossil power can be obtained,and the combination of the development rate of coal power,gas power and non-fossil power is the most economical.Compared with the baseline scenario,the optimized power transition combination scenario can reduce the fossil energy consumption by 110 million tce,reduce carbon emissions by 280 million t CO2,increase the added value of the power sector by CNY 23.8 billion,and increase the added value of other sectors by CNY 17.2 billion.The optimal power generation speed regulation strategy proposed in this study is conducive to supporting the economic,effective,safe,reliable,coordinated and orderly transition of the power system in the GBA and the formulation of low-carbon policies.