工业机器人对中国区域产业结构的影响研究

Impact of Industrial Robot on Regional Industrial Structure in China

工业机器人的大规模部署与人工智能带来的技术革新,推动着地方高度工业化和现代化发展。工业机器人正在经历从自动化工具到智能化工具,甚至向创新工具转变的过程。理论分析认为其通用性特征和技术进步效应有助于产业结构的转型升级。以国际机器人联盟数据构建面板平滑转移回归(PSTR)模型进行检验,结果显示:(1)工业机器人冲击对中国区域产业结构升级的影响存在单门槛效应,空间上可大致划分为以胡焕庸线为界、东高西低的冲击区。(2)随着冲击的不断增大,物质资本集聚对区域产业结构升级的正效应受到抑制,工业劳动力集聚对区域产业结构升级的负效应得以增强。(3)物质资本集聚和工业劳动力集聚的弹性受冲击影响在胡焕庸线以西地区边际递增,在胡焕庸线以东地区边际递减,最终收敛。(4)工业机器人在吸引人力资本集聚、技术要素集聚和引导消费结构改变的过程中对产业结构的影响并不显著。

The large-scale deployment of robots in industries affects the regional industrial structure.In general,industrial robots are changing from automation tools to intelligent tools,and even to innovative tools.Theoretically,its versatile characteristics and technological advancement effects contributed to the transformation and upgrading of industries.In order to understand this process clearly,the paper analyzed the mechanism and used IFR data to construct a PSTR model.The results showed that(1)The impact of robot shocks on the upgrading of regional industrial structure had a single threshold effect,which can be roughly divided into the impact zone of high east and low west by the Heihe-Tengchong Line as the boundary.(2)With the increasing shock,robots restrained the positive effect of material capital agglomeration but promoted the negative effect of industrial labor agglomeration on upgrading of regional industrial structure,reversing the effect at the threshold.(3)In the west of the Line,the marginal effect of the two elements on the upgrading of regional industrial structure was increasing and divergent,while in the east,the marginal effect decreased and eventually converged.(4)Industrial robots had no significant influence on the structure in the process of attracting human capital agglomeration,requiring the agglomeration of technological elements and guiding the change of consumption structure.