1637—1643年华北地区极端干旱事件中的粮食危机

Food Crisis in Extreme Droughts in North China from 1637 to 1643

粮食作为自然生态系统与社会经济系统的关联点,能够有效地揭示极端干旱事件对自然-经济-社会复合生态系统影响的过程和机理。以粮价异动为切入点,通过粮价通胀指数和“无透雨”的持续时间,分析农业旱情及其对粮食生产的影响,对1637—1643年华北地区极端干旱事件中的粮食安全进行深入剖析。结果显示:华北地区无透雨天数超过150 d,年降水量与5—9月降水量的距平值均≤-30%,水分异常短缺,土壤严重失墒,危及粮食生产安全。因此,降水量距平值≤-30%是华北地区粮食生产安全的临界阈值。此次极端干旱事件是历史同类事件之最,连续无透雨日数最长,地表径流枯竭记录最多,水资源的短缺导致伴生灾害相继发生,超过生态系统的忍耐极限,粮食生长期缩短,减产歉收,绝产绝收,粮食供给链条断裂。粮价通胀指数最低9.50,最高26.70;货币发行与粮食供给失衡,通货膨胀严重,粮价飞涨,市场倒闭,粮食安全体系崩塌,自然-经济-社会复合生态系统发生质变成为历史必然。

As the connection point between the natural ecosystem and the social economic system,food can effectively reveal the process and mechanism of the impact of extreme drought events on the natural-economic-social ecosystem.Using food price variation as an entry point,the agricultural drought and its impact on food production were analyzed by using the food price inflation index and the duration of‘no soaking rain’to provide an in-depth analysis of food security during the extreme drought events in North China from 1637 to 1643.The results show that:The number of non-permeable days in North China exceeds 150 days,the anomaly between the annual precipitation and the precipitation from May to September is≤-30%,abnormal water shortage,severe soil moisture loss,endangering food production safety;therefore,precipitation the average value of the measurement anomaly≤-30%is the critical threshold of food production safety in North China.This extreme drought event is the highest of its kind in history.The number of consecutive days without soaking rain is the longest,and the surface runoff has the most records of depletion.The shortage of water resources has caused accompanying disasters to occur one after another,exceeding the tolerance limit of the ecosystem,shortening the growth period of food,reducing production and poor harvests.The grain supply chain is broken due to the failure of production and harvest.The lowest food price inflation index is 9.50 and the highest is 26.70;currency issuance and food supply are out of balance,inflation is serious,food prices are soaring,the market is closed,the food security system collapses,and the natural-economy-society complex ecosystem is qualitatively inevitable in history.