宏观政策分化的理解与中国经济政策取向

The Understanding of Macro Policy Differentiation and China’s Economic Policy Orientation

2021年下半年开始,全球监管政策取向出现分化,部分新兴市场国家的宏观经济政策已经实质性转向应对通货膨胀,部分发达国家因警惕通货膨胀而采取审慎的宏观政策,大部分发达国家的政策部门仍然聚焦即期市场与经济表现,随时运用一切可能的政策工具,甚至超预期地加码出台相应的政策措施。中国则接连发出收紧监管的信号,而且力度不断加大,引起市场高度猜想甚至不确定性预期。从智库学者的角度,对中外宏观政策分化不宜做简单的比较,中国宏观政策取向虽然有应对短期经济波动的考虑,但更多的是中长期战略安排。在这个真正意义的战略转型过程中,政策部门的操作技巧必须改善,要加强与市场的沟通,把握时机与力度,尤其要注意对特定政策出台之后各种关联效应的全面评估,把握好政策重心,选择有利的出台时机,密切监测政策出台之后的市场与社会反应,及时回应或补充完善操作细节。面对市场认识分歧,政策制定者应该透过短期数据的蛛丝马迹把握经济发展的趋势性变化,对于客观存在的市场困惑也需要更加理智的宏观政策预期加以引导。

Starting from the second half of 2021,the orientation of global regulatory policies has diverged.the macroeconomic policies of some emerging market countries have substantially shifted to respond to inflation,and some developed countries have adopted prudent macroeconomic policies because they are wary of inflation,and the policy departments of most developed countries still focus on the immediate market and economic performance,they utilize all possible policy tools at any time,and even over-expected the introduction of corresponding policy measures.China has successively issued signals of tightening regulation,and the intensity has been continuously increased,which has caused high speculation and even uncertain expectations in the market.From the perspective of think tank scholars,it is not appropriate to make a simple comparison of the differentiation of macro policies between China and foreign countries,although China’s macro policy orientation has the consideration of coping with short-term economic fluctuations,it is more of a medium-and long-term strategic arrangement.In this true strategic transformation process,the operating skills of the policy department must be improved,and communication with the market must be strengthened to grasp the opportunity and intensity,and pay particular attention to the comprehensive evaluation of various related effects after the introduction of specific policies,and to grasp the focus of the policy,Choosing a favorable time for launching,closely monitoring the market and social reactions after the policy is launched and respond promptly or supplement and improve operation details.Faced with differences in market understanding,policy makers should grasp the trend of economic development through clues in short-term data,and the objective existence of market confusion also needs to be guided by more sensible macro policy expectations.