2022年北京冬季奥运会项目运营风险管理预测研究

Operational Risk Management Forecast of Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games

2022年北京冬季奥运会(以下简称“冬奥会”)是我国重要历史节点的重大标志性活动,是展现国家形象、促进国家发展、提振民族精神的重要契机。运用文献资料、内容分析和实地调研等方法,结合项目风险管理理论,对冬奥会进行风险防范管理研究。研究认为为保障冬奥会高质量运营,在专家访谈基础上开展赛事模拟推演,识别运营中可能存在的风险;以历史数据为案例研究对象,分析其风险因素进行规则推理,以粗糙集属性依赖度的遗传算法进行风险指标约简,确定风险各类别中的关键指标,并采用RAC风险评估指数方法进行风险评估;根据风险评估结果制定风险应对方案,降低风险发生的概率和产生的损失,进而完善冬奥会风险管理模式,促进其进入良性运转状态。

The Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games(hereinafter referred to as the“Winter Olympic Games”)is a major landmark event at an important historical moment of China,and an important opportunity to display the national image,promote the national development and boost the national spirit.Through literature review,content analysis and field investigation,combined with the theory of project risk management,the risk prevention management of the Winter Olympics was studied.In order to ensure the high quality operation of the Winter Olympic Games,simulation to identify the possible risks in operation should be executed based on expert interviews.Taking historical data as the object of study,the risk factors were analyzed for rule reasoning.The risk indicators were reduced by genetic algorithm of rough set attribute dependence,and the key indicators in each risk category were determined.The RAC risk assessment index method was used for risk assessment.According to the results of risk assessment,the risk response plan was formulated to reduce the probability of risk occurrence and loss,so as to improve the risk management mode of the Winter Olympic Games and promote its benign operation.