中美贸易争端对债券市场的影响机制研究

A Research on the Mechanism of China-United States Trade Disputes on Bond Market

中美贸易争端致使大量资金出于避险需求涌入债券市场,准确判断其对债券市场的影响及作用机制具有重要的现实意义。研究发现,中美贸易争端引致资金避险情绪上升,但资金偏好于利率债和高等级低风险的信用债,同时,贸易争端对出口的制约将大大掣肘GDP增速,利好债券市场。央行为对冲负面影响而实行的降准、MLF、窗口指导等措施,助推了债券市场的牛市行情;接下来,积极财政政策将会更加积极,引致风险偏好上升和通胀预期,利空债券市场,但也将提升中低等级信用债的投资需求。此外,中美贸易争端还通过作用于债券市场的供需和市场情绪,在不同阶段对债券市场收益率曲线产生不同影响。

The China-United States trade disputes have resulted in a massive influx of funds into the bond market,and it is critical to appropriately assess the impact and mechanism on the bond market.According to this paper,the trade disputes have caused risk avoidance,and funds prefer interest rates and high-grade and low-risk credit.At the same time,the restrictions imposed by the trade disputes on exports will greatly impede the growth of the GDP while benefiting the bond market.In the face of internal and external suffering,the People’s Bank of China has taken measures in terms of RRR,MLF,and“Window Guidance”to hedge the negative impact.The bull market,therefore,will boost the bond market.Next,the positive fiscal policy will be more active,which will not only lead to the rise of risk preference and inflation expectation but also weaken the bond market.Additionally,because of the investment demand for debt,middle and low-grade credit will thus be raised.Moreover,the trade disputes also affect the bond market’s yield curve in different stages by acting on the supply and demand of the bond market and market sentiment.