消费税下划地方的财力分配效应与收入分享优化策略研究--基于数值模拟分析

Research on Financial Distribution Effect and Income Sharing Optimization Strategy of Transferring the Consumption Tax to the Local Government:Based on Numerical Simulation

消费税下划地方改革,即将开启中央税向地方下划及地区间财力横向分配两个先例,同时会引致央地财力纵向和地方财力横向的重新配置,牵一发而动全身。依据国发〔2019〕21号文件方案,笔者模拟评估消费税下划地方改革的财力分配效应。“定基数、调增量”的央地纵向分配方面:改革初期对地方财政缺口弥补作用微弱,中长期可有效缓解地方收支矛盾,但存在富裕省份效果显著、经济落后省份效果较弱的现象。征税环节后移下划地方将引发区域间财力横向分配:生产大省但不是消费大省在改革中将明显受损;消费大省整体受益但存在分化;均衡省份财政改善但仍与消费大省有较大差距。应充分预估改革中利益冲突,通过收入分享机制优化设计予以防范和化解。

The reform of local allocation of consumption tax is about to open two precedents:the allocation of central tax to local governments and the horizontal distribution of financial resources among regions.At the same time,it will lead to reallocate financial resources vertically between central and local governments and horizontally between local governments,which will affect the whole body.According to the scheme of GF[2019]No.21 document,We simulate and evaluate the financial distribution effect of local reform under consumption tax.In terms of the longitudinal distribution of central and local governments of“Determine the base and adjust the increment”:the role of making up for the local financial gap in the early stage of reform is weak,and the contradiction between local revenue and expenditure can be effectively alleviated in the medium and long term,but there is a phenomenon that the effect is significant in rich provinces and weak in economically backward provinces.After the tax link is moved late and the consumption tax is transferred to the local government,it will lead to the horizontal distribution of financial resources among regions:the provinces with large production but not large consumption will be obviously damaged in the reform;large consumption provinces benefit as a whole,but there is differentiation;the fiscal balance of provinces has improved,but there is still a big gap with large consumption provinces.We should fully predict the conflict of interest in the reform and prevent and resolve it through the optimal design of income sharing mechanism.