2021年11月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in November 2021

目的评估2021年11月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用"全球重点关注国家"、"WHO各分区一般关注国家"和"周边特别关注国家"予以表示。结果2021年11月全球新增确诊病例较10月增长了20.78%,全球新增死亡病例下降了0.8%,欧洲区新增确诊和死亡病例均最多,增长率分别为53.5%和38.6%,其余各区均呈下降趋势。全球每新增1000万确诊病例用时呈现缩短趋势。德国和波兰是全球重点关注国家;智利、哥伦比亚、约旦、黎巴嫩、南非、越南和韩国是各WHO分区一般关注国家。结论全球正处于第四波大的疫情上升阶段,对于全球重点关注的国家要持续加强疫情监测,实时调整入境管控的政策,并与相关的机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in November 2021 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries.The assessment results for each country are expressed as“countries of global concern”,“countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region”and“neighbouring countries of special concern”.Results Compared with the previous month,the number of confirmed cases increased by20.78%and deaths decreased by 0.8%globally in November 2021.The number of newly confirmed cases increased by 53.5%and deaths increased by 38.6%in the European region,and all other regions showed a downward trend.Globally,there was trend that it took much less time for a 10 million case increasing.Germany and Poland were countries with global concern.Chile,Colombia,Jordan,Lebanon,South Africa,Vietnam and South Korea were the countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region.Conclusion The world is in the fourth wave of COVID-19.It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus,adjust entry control policies in real time,and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.