FDI、OFDI与中国绿色全要素生产率——基于空间计量模型的分析

Effects of FDI and OFDI on Green Total Factor Productivity in China: An Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Models

面对错综复杂的国际形势、艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务特别是新冠肺炎疫情的严重冲击,有必要从宏观层面研究FDI与OFDI在影响中国GTFP时是否存在协同效应,以突出国际化问题研究的整体性、系统性和关联性。本文选取中国对外直接投资和外商直接投资的宏观统计数据,在设置四种空间权重矩阵的基础上,利用空间计量模型系统分析了FDI、OFDI及其交互项对中国GTFP的影响。结果发现,FDI对中国GTFP的影响在统计上并不显著;OFDI对中国GTFP具有一定的促进作用;忽略中国GTFP动态效应的影响时,FDI与OFDI仅在人力资本矩阵假设下存在促进中国GTFP的协同效应;考虑中国GTFP动态效应的影响时,FDI与OFDI在促进中国GTFP上存在地理属性的协同效应。本文的研究对于"引进来"与"走出去"国际化战略的实施,以及促进形成国际国内双循环的新发展格局,都有重要的战略意义和实践价值。

Facing the perplexing international situation and the huge task of reform and development, and especially the shock of COVID-19, it’s important and necessary to investigate the synergy effect of FDI and OFDI on GTFP in China by utilizing macroeconomic data, so as to highlight the integrity, systematicness, and relevance of internationalization research.Based on four kinds of spatial weight matrices, the effects of FDI, OFDI and their interaction term on GTFP in China are analyzed by utilizing spatial econometric models. The results show that the impact of FDI on GTFP in China is not statistically significant, while OFDI has to some extent significantly promoted GTFP in China. In addition, without the consideration of the dynamic effect of GTFP in China, the synergistic effect between FDI and OFDI in promoting GTFP in China is merely established under the assumption of human capital matrix. However, with the consideration of the dynamic effect of GTFP in China, the synergistic effect between FDI and OFDI in promoting GTFP in China is established under the assumption of two geographical weight matrices such as the geographical adjacency matrix and the geographical inverse distance matrix.There are strategic and practical implications for implementing the internationalization strategy of “bringing in” and “going out” simultaneously and promoting the formation of a new development pattern of international and domestic dual circulation in the long run.