农产品流通体系影响农产品价格波动的机理与路径——基于92户嵌入式个案实地调查数据的质性分析

The Mechanism and Path of Agricultural Product Circulation System Influencing the Fluctuation of Agricultural Products Price——Based on Qualitative Analysis of Data from Field Investigation of 92 Households

本文采用规范化实地研究方法,运用质性分析软件对某地农产品批发市场92户嵌入式个案的访谈数据进行分析,较为清晰地阐释了农产品流通体系对农产品价格影响的内在机理及路径。来自实地调查事实证据分析表明,农产品流通体系与农产品价格波动之间具有显著的相关性;且农产品流通体系构成要素通过供求关系、经营成本、心理预期等三个控制因素可以综合影响农产品价格波动及幅度;优化农产品流通体系确实能起到抑制农产品价格过度波动的作用。这说明,短期的农产品生产调控或价格补贴措施对抑制农产品价格过度波动作用有限,建立长效的农产品流通体系内在稳定性以消解体制机制性障碍,比过度偏重生产性调节更重要。

For complex factors affecting agricultural product price, this paper focuses on optimizing agricultural product circulation system, the standardized field research method is adopted and the qualitative analysis on the interview data of 92 households embedded cases in a agricultural product wholesale market is applied. It clearly explains the internal mechanism and path of the influence of agriculture circulation system on agriculture product price. The agricultural product circulation system have a significant co-relationship with price fluctuations. Meanwhile, the circulation system can affect the range of price fluctuation through three variables: supply and demand, operational cost, expectation. Optimizing agricultural product circulation system does have the significant effect on inhibiting excessive fluctuations in price.The results show that, First, Short-term agricultural supply or price regulation is less efficient to curb excessive price fluctuation, however, improving the inherent stability of the modern market system is more important.Second, the phenomenon of excessive fluctuation of agricultural product price is not totally dependent on the fluctuation of agriculture supply or simple vertical price transmission, but the characteristics of demand shock dominated by price manipulation or expectation, stabilizing market expectation is very important. Third, building a mid-tier optimization linkage mechanism centered on wholesale market and wholesale price can restrain the excessive price fluctuation of agriculture.