我国质量提升率测算及其对经济增长的贡献率研究

Calculating the Rate of Quality Improvement and its Contribution Rate of Economic Growth in China

基于经济增长理论,提取质量要素构建"技术进步-资本增长-质量提升"的多指标多原因结构方程模型,并利用蒙特卡洛-贝叶斯插补法测算1998-2017年的质量提升率及其对经济增长的贡献率。研究发现:第一,创新会拉动质量提升,质量提升会提高产品异质性进而形成高质量贸易关系,显著促进对外贸易额增长。但会增加能源消耗,亟待转变能源结构;第二,质量提升率均值5.11%,呈现阶梯式上升态势,良好的国际贸易环境有利于要素流通、要素质量提升,从而获取更高水平的要素收入。国家宏观调控措施在保障要素供给质量、提高配置效率和均衡供需结构方面发挥重要作用;第三,质量提升率对经济增长的贡献率最大值16.82%、均值8.84%,低于技术进步和资本增长的贡献率,但趋势上存在交互影响和互补作用,质量提升已经成为高质量发展的重要显性表达。

In the context of economic globalization, factor mobility promotes the extension of factor connotations. Factor quality has become a major factor influencing factor income growth, and the difference in factor quality effects between primary and higher factors is becoming more pronounced. Although the contribution of factor quality to economic growth is objective, there are limitations and underestimation in the measurement of factor quality improvement rate. Stripping factor quality from the evaluation of factor quantity supply and measuring the factor quality improvement rate are difficult issues. However, it is an important guide for balancing the factor structure and improving the efficiency of factor supply.Douglas production function is extended by extracting factor quality from the residuals and incorporating it into the equation. A Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause Structural Equation Model(MIMIC) of technological progress, growth in capital stock per capita, and quality improvement is constructed. The overall MIMIC model fitness is tested through multidimensional indicators, and the model robustness is verified by comparing the results of the great likelihood estimation and Monte Carlo-Bayesian parameter estimation. On this basis, the Bayesian interpolation method is applied to measure the rate of technological progress, capital stock per capita growth, and quality improvement in China from 1998 to 2017, and to estimate their contribution to the economic growth rate.The result shows that: innovation capabilities play a significant role in quality improvement. The increase in quality has contributed significantly to the growth in the volume of foreign trade. Therefore, improving factor quality is an important guarantee to safeguard the heterogeneity of enterprises and access to international markets. However, quality improvement will bring about an increase in energy consumption, and transforming the energy mix has become an urgent task. The average value of the quality improvement rate is 5.11%, showing an upward trend in stages. A good international trade environment is conducive to factor circulation and improving factor quality to obtain a higher level of factor income. Meanwhile, national macro-control measures play an important role in ensuring the orderly flow of factors, improving the efficiency of factor allocation, and balancing the structure of quality supply and demand. In general, the contribution of the quality improvement rate to economic growth has a maximum value of 16.82% and a mean value of 8.84%. Although the contribution rate is lower than that of technology and capital, there is an interactive and complementary effect on the trend. Quality improvement has become an important visible expression of quality development.