全球价值链嵌入、数字经济与产业升级——基于中国城市面板数据的研究

Global Value Chain Embedding, Digital Economy and Industrial Upgrading: A Research Based on Panel Data of Chinese Cities

全球价值链嵌入对中国产业高级化与合理化发展具有深远影响,而数字经济对全球价值链嵌入的产业升级效应起到了不可忽视的作用。基于2000-2013年中国工业企业数据库和海关数据库合并数据测算得到全国315个地级市的全球价值链嵌入度样本,实证检验全球价值链嵌入度对我国产业高级化和合理化的影响。研究发现:城市层面全球价值链嵌入与产业结构高级化、合理化间存在非线性关系,其中全球价值链嵌入与产业高级化呈倒U型曲线关系,与产业合理化呈正U型曲线关系。扩展研究表明,数字经济的发展加强了全球价值链嵌入的产业升级效应,但存在诸多异质性,特别是内陆非省会城市进口学习的吸收能力不足,盲目发展数字经济反而易形成路径依赖和低端锁定。应着重把握内源式突破及适度的全球价值链嵌入,分阶段、分地区、有秩序地发展数字经济,有效发挥数字经济对全球价值链嵌入的产业升级效应的积极调节作用,促进我国产业结构优化升级并最终实现提质增效。

Global value chain embedding has a far-reaching impact on the up-grading and rationalization of China’s industrial structure, while digital economy plays a significant role in the industrial upgrading driven by the global value chain embedding. Based on the calculation of the merging data of China industrial enterprise database and customs database from 2000 to 2013, the samples of global value chain embedding in 315 prefecture-level cities in China were obtained to empirically verify the impact of global value chain embedding on China’s industrial upgrading and rationalization. The research shows that there is a non-linear relationship between global value chain embedding and the up-grading and rationalization of industrial structure at the city level. The global value chain embedding has an inverted U-shaped curve relationship with industrial upgrading, but a U-shaped curve relationship with industrial rationalization. The extended study shows that the development of digital economy has strengthened the industrial upgrading effect of the global value chain embedding, but there exists large heterogeneity, especially the insufficient absorption capacity of inland non-provincial cities to learn from the outside, so the blind development of digital economy is easy to cause path dependence and low-end lock-in. Therefore, emphasis should be laid on making endogenous breakthroughs and appropriate global value chain embedding, development digital economy in a phased, regional and orderly manner, and on effectively playing the positive role of digital economy in regulating the industrial upgrading effect of the global value chain embedding. In this way, the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure can be enhanced, and its quality and efficiency can finally be improved.