基于主成分分析法的玛纳斯河水文情势分析

Analysis of River Hydrological Regime in Manas River Based on Principal Component Analysis

为实施流域生态综合治理,基于玛纳斯河逐日径流、降雨及气温资料,采用M-K检验法、指标变化范围法(IHA-RVA法)及主成分分析法综合定量评价水文情势改变程度。结果表明,水文、气温、降雨量突变点分别为1996、1986、2005年;玛纳斯河整体水文改变度为62.36%,属于中度改变,其中12个指标发生高度改变;主成分分析法筛选得出的7个重要指标,经计算水文改变度为57.33%,属于中度改变,与IHA指标体系的水文改变度仅相差5.03%。分析表明,流域内气候及降雨的变化是导致河流水文情势变化的重要原因。

In order to implement the comprehensive ecological management of the river basin,based on the daily runoff,rainfall and air temperature data,the M-K test method,the index variation range method(IHA-RVA method)and the principal component analysis method were used to comprehensively and quantitatively evaluate the change degree of hydrological regime in Manas River.The results show that the abrupt change points of hydrology,temperature and rainfall are 1996,1986 and 2005,respectively.The overall hydrological change degree of the Manas River is 62.36%,which belongs to moderate change,and 12 indexes are highly changed.The hydrological change degree of the 7 important indicators screened by the principal component analysis method is 57.33%,belonging to moderate change,and only 5.03% difference from the hydrological change degree of the IHA indicator system.The analysis shows that the change of climate and rainfall in the basin is an important reason for the change of river hydrological regime.