短缺经济下的近代中国投资——1907—1936年中国投资影响因素定量分析

Chinese Investment in a Shortage Economy——Quantitative Analysis of Influencing Factors of Chinese Investment from 1907 to 1936

"短缺"是近代中国经济现实的重要特征,这与经典经济学理论假设相悖,结合近代中国经济的实际调整约束条件,对影响短缺经济下近代中国投资的因素提出理论假说,并依据国内外学者在近代中国投资部门的数据估算对假说进行检验。结果表明,以工农业投资为代表的近代中国总投资受到一期投资惯性、国民收入和白银国际汇率的影响,相较而言,一期投资惯性和国民收入的影响更为显著。对关于近代中国投资研究多为数据估算和定性描述的现状,是必要的补充与推动。

Shortage is an important feature of modern China’ s economic reality,which is contrary to the hypothesis of classical economic theory.Combining with the reality of modern China to adjust the constraint conditions,this paper puts forward a theoretical hypothesis on the factors affecting modern China’ s investment under shortage economy,and tests the hypothesis according to the data estimation of modern Chinese investment sector by domestic and foreign scholars.The results show that the total investment represented by industrial and agricultural investment in modern China is mainly affected by the total investment lagging behind one period,the national income and the silver’ s international exchange rate in order.Comparatively,the first two factors’ effect is much more significant.It is a necessary supplement and promotion to the present situation that the research on the investment in modern China is mostly data estimation and qualitative description.