碳中和目标下中国地区碳生态安全与生态补偿研究

Study on regional carbon ecological security and ecological compensation in China under carbon neutralization target

碳中和目标不仅是气候治理的中国承诺,也是实现经济高质量增长的内生需求。基于生态足迹、投入产出的方法,利用能源消耗、土地利用及投入产出的相关数据,对碳中和目标下地区生态安全与生态补偿展开研究,结论如下:(1)地区生态安全及协调水平持续下降,二者在区域上呈现趋同特征。2000—2017年间,全国整体ESI指数从1.08上升至3.06,ECI指数由1.413下降至1.261,24个省生态安全与协调发展等级出现不同程度下降。生态安全与协调发展表现出明显的趋同规律,安全等级低(或高)的地区对应协调水平也低(或高)。(2)全国生态"欠账"增长迅速,地区补偿呈现东"补"西"偿"中"平衡"的结构特征。基于碳中和的近期实施与远期目标构建了"净零排放"与"净零贡献"两种生态补偿方案。在"净零排放"方案下,全国需支付的生态补偿从1334.57亿美元增长至83819.61亿美元,生态赤字增长迅速;该方案下,三大沿海经济区长期为补偿支付地区,但其支付的全国占比在逐渐下降;与之相对应黄河及长江中游地区补偿支付比例迅速上升。净零贡献补偿方案下,全国范围补偿会计平衡,地区补偿结构表明东部为补偿区,西部为受偿区,中部基本平衡。

The carbon neutrality target is not only China′ s commitment to climate governance,but also the endogenous demand for high-quality economic development. This paper, based on China′s energy consumption, land utilization pattern and input-output data, is aimed to conduct research on China’s inter-provincial ecological security, coordinated development and carbon ecological compensation in the context of basic theoretical framework of ecological footprint.The conclusions of this paper are as follows.(1) Ecological security and regional coordination level continue to decline, which present the characteristics of regional convergence. From 2000 to 2017, the ESI index of China as a whole rose from 1.08 to 3.06, and the ECI index decreased from 1.413 to 1.261. The level of ecological security and coordinated development in 24 provincial-level regions declined. The level of ecological security and coordinated development showed an obvious trend of consistency, i.e., low coordinated development level in regions with low security level, and high coordinated development level in regions with high security level.(2) China is witnessing rapidly growing ecological "debt". Regional ecological compensation shows the following characteristics: eastern China "pays compensation", western China "accepts compensation", and central China "maintains a balance". Based on different policy objectives, this paper designs two ecological compensation schemes: "net zero emission" and "net zero contribution". Under the "net zero emissions" scheme, China’s ecological compensation payments increased from $1334.57 million to $83819.61 million during the study period, a 60-fold increase over 17 years. On the regional compensation structure, the three coastal economic zones are long-term compensation payment areas, but the proportion of compensation payment in the whole country is gradually declining;correspondingly, the proportion of compensation payment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River increased rapidly. Under the net zero contribution compensation scheme, China-wide compensation achieves accounting balance.Regionally, eastern China pays for carbon offsetting, western China is compensated, and central China can basically keep the balance.