COVID-19期间上海市应急医疗资源配置建模与仿真

Modeling and Simulation of Emergency Medical Resources Allocation in Shanghai during COVID-19

针对COVID-19期间上海市应急医疗资源配置进行建模与仿真化模拟。基于传染病SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infected-removed)模型,结合患者门诊就诊和住院治疗过程,构建了医疗资源需要量测算的SEIOWHR(susceptible-exposed-infected-outpatients-waiting to hospitalized-hospitalized removed)系统动力学模型。仿真模拟武汉疫情若发生在上海,需要的应急医疗资源量和不同医疗资源供给水平下的缺口发生时间及待住院患者疾病转归结局,探索传染病疫情下医疗资源配置的关键因素。建议应结合疫情发展趋势和患者疾病转归结局,加强医疗资源的早期规划和动态调整,并努力提高确诊率,有效应对传染病疫情。

Modeling and simulating on the allocation of emergency medical resources in Shanghai with COVID-19 is carried out.Based on the SEIR model of infectious diseases,combined with the process of outpatients visiting and inpatients treatment,a SEIOWHR(susceptible-exposed-infected-outpatientswaiting to hospitalized-hospitalized-removed)system dynamics model is established.If the Wuhan epidemic occurred in Shanghai,based on the model,the amount of emergency medical resources needed,the gap time of medical resources and the disease progression of patients who are waiting to hospitalized under the different supply of medical resources is simulated,and the key factors in the allocation of medical resources at a major epidemic are found.It is recommended that the early planning and dynamic adjustment of emergency medical resources should be strengthened based on the epidemic trend and disease progression of patients,and the accurate diagnosis rate is needed to be improved to respond the infectious diseases effectively.