长江干线集装箱吞吐量分析预测

Analysis and Prediction of the Container Throughput on the Trunk Line of Yangtze River

港口集装箱吞吐量是进行港口规划和加强港口建设的依据,预测长江干线主要港口企业集装箱吞吐量对促进长江干线水域经济发展发挥了重要作用。以长江干线主要港口企业集装箱吞吐量为基础,分析二次指数平滑法、灰色模型预测法和BP-GA算法的原理,分别建立三种相应的预测模型并比较预测结果及精度。结果表明BP-GA模型能更加准确预测集装箱吞吐量在时间序列上的变化趋势,预测拟合度最佳。最后以该模型预测分析2021年1月至12月的长江干线主要港口企业集装箱吞吐量,为未来长江航运发展提供参考。

The port container throughput is the basis for port planning and strengthening port construction.The prediction of container throughput of main port enterprises plays an important role in promoting the economic development of the Yangtze River Basin.Based on the container throughput of main port enterprises on the trunk line of Yangtze River,the principles of quadratic exponential smoothing method,grey model prediction method and BP-GA algorithm are analyzed.Besides,three corresponding prediction models are established,and the prediction results are compared.On this basis,the result indicates that BP-GA model can more accurately reflect the trend of container throughput in time series,which has the best prediction fit.In addition,the model is used to predict and analyze the container throughput of main port enterprises from January to December of 2021 on the trunk line of Yangtze River,which can provide the reference for the development of Yangtze River shipping in the future.