云南省民航客运发展预测

Prediction of the Development of Civil Aviation Passenger Transport in Yunnan Province

民航运输是云南省在进行综合交通运输建设的重点之一,也是该省在未来“十四五”(2021-2025年)和“十五五”(2026-2030年)规划期间的研究热点。本文以云南省为研究范围,以省内民航客运为研究对象,选取省内主要的社会经济因素为影响因子,运用主成分分析法(PCA)、反向传播神经网络算法(BP神经网络算法)和回归分析法,构建了省内民航客运的预测模型,得出省内各主要机场在“十四五”末和“十五五”末的预计旅客吞吐量,对省政府在进行机场改扩建上有一定的指导意义。

Civil aviation transport is one of the key points of comprehensive transport construction in Yunnan province,which is also a research focus for the province in the 14th five-year plan(2021-2025)period and the 15th five-year plan(2026-2030)period in the future.This paper takes Yunnan province as the research scope,civil aviation passenger transport in the province as the research object,and chooses the main social and economic factors in the province as the influencing factors,using principal component analysis(PCA),back propagation neural network algorithm(BP neural network algorithm)and regression analysis,the prediction model of civil aviation passenger transport in Yunnan province is constructed.The expected passenger throughput of major airports in the province at the end of the"14th five-year plan"and"15th Five-year Plan"is obtained,which has certain guiding significance for the provincial government in airport reconstruction and expansion.