青藏高原农业现代化时空分异及其驱动机制

Spatio-temporal differentiation of agricultural modernization and its driving mechanism on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

农业现代化是当代农村建设的重要内容和社会经济文明发展的重要衡量标准。本文基于1990—2017年青藏高原统计数据,构建农业现代化综合指标体系,运用熵值法计算各指标权重,进而获得农业现代化指数和各项指标贡献度,以此评估高原农业现代化发展时空特征和驱动因子。研究结果表明:①1990—2017年青藏高原农业现代化水平普遍偏低(全区平均农业现代化指数为0.15),呈增加趋势;②从空间上看,农业现代化水平相对较高的地区分散在高原北部、西南部、南部边缘和一江两河的德格县、湟中县、白朗县、浪卡子县等部分县域;③农业现代化指标中,单位耕地面积用电量、有效灌溉率和土地生产率对高原农业现代化水平影响最大(对农业现代化指数的贡献度分别为13%、12%和11%),其中单位耕地面积用电量和土地生产率增加促进了农业投入水平和农业产出水平,是农业现代化的主要正向驱动因子;单位耕地面积农药使用量的增加不利于环境可持续发展,是农业现代化的主要负向驱动因子。

Agricultural modernization is important for rural construction, social economy, and civilization development. Based on the statistical data of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1990 to 2017, we built a comprehensive index system with agricultural modernization as the primary index, agricultural input level, agricultural output level, and sustainable agricultural development level as the secondary indexes, and then obtained the weight of each index through the entropy value method. Finally, the agricultural modernization index and driving factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were calculated. The results showed that:(1) from 1990 to2017, the agricultural modernization level in the study area is generally low(with the value of0.15) compared with the average level of China, showing an increasing trend;(2) the counties of relatively high level of agricultural modernization such as Dege, Huangzhong, Bailang, and Langkazi are scattered in the northern, southeastern and southern edges, and the YLN(Yarlung Zangbo River, Nyangqu River and Lhasa River) region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau;(3) electricity consumption per unit cultivated area, effective irrigation rate and land productivity had the greatest effects on the agricultural modernization level on the plateau, with the contribution degrees being 13%, 12% and 11%, respectively.