基于Logistic模型的舆情系统多场域耦合效应治理研究

Coupling Evolution Model of Public Opinion System in Multiple Fields and Governance Strategies

【目的/意义】舆情信息自发演化条件下出现多平台联动现象,使舆情演化的内在机理更加复杂,进一步增加政府对舆情的认知难度和治理成本。【方法/过程】在分析舆情系统多场域耦合效应治理原理的基础上,针对基于Logistic扩展模型的舆情系统,提出确定耦合效应的研判方法,以不同稳态情形更有针对性地制定舆情治理策略,并根据COVID-19舆情案例进行可视化展示。【结果/结论】本文提出的耦合效应量化与识别方法适用于舆情治理工作,可将多场域治理问题递归为双场域情形,进一步实现精准施策。【创新/局限】考虑耦合效应的舆情系统在解释现象、理论基础、演化原理、研究层面和适用范围上有别于现有文献,未来应投入更加丰富的案例样本拓展实践检验。

【Purpose/significance】The phenomenon of multi-platform interactionunder the condition of spontaneous evolution of public opinion information makes the internal mechanism of public opinion evolution more complex,and further increases the government’s cognitive difficulty and governance cost of public opinion.【Method/proces】Based on the analysis of multi-field coupling effect(CE)governance principle of public opinion system(POS),this paper puts forward the research and judgment method to determine CE of POS based on logistic extended model,makes more targeted public opinion governance strategies in different steady-state situations,and makes visual display according to COVID-19 public opinion case.【Result/conclusion】The method of quantification and identification of coupling relationship proposed in this paper is suitable for public opinion governance,which can recursively transform the multifield governance problem into the case of double-field and help to achieve to carry out strategy precisely.【Innovation/limitation】POS considering CE is different from the existing literature in explaining phenomenon.theoretical basis,evolution principle.research level and application scope.In the future,more abundant case samples should be invested to expand the practical test.