危机情景下群体情感表达的动力学机制研究

The Dynamic Mechanism of Group Emotional Expression in the Crisis

【目的/意义】探索危机情景下的群体情感表达的动力学机制,对于危机情境下的网络舆情管理具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。【方法/过程】研究获取与"群体免疫"相关的微博数据,利用SKEP模型计算每日情感倾向和情感值以构建情感时间序列,对情感序列的平稳性、纯随机性以及混沌性进行分析。【结果/结论】研究结果表明,舆情是一个过程系统,群体情感表达是该过程系统的一种连续过程。在不同阶段群体情感表达呈现迥异的动力学特性,起始期的情感序列是由一个随机系统产生的;爆发期主导群体情感表达机制的是一个混沌系统;平稳期群体情感表达过程是一个二阶马尔可夫过程,是由一个稳定的非混沌系统主导情感的表达。【创新/局限】本研究挖掘了危机情境下群体情感表达的动力学机制,丰富了理论视角。但本研究仅针对危机情境展开,在未来研究中将进一步研究比较危机情境下与其他情境下群体情感表达动力学机制的差异。

【Purpose/significance】It is of great significance to explore the dynamic mechanism of group emotion expression in the crisis, which can provide theoretical support for the guidance and decision-making of public opinion.【Method/process】This study obtains microblog posts and comments related to "herd immunity", and calculates daily emotional inclination and values based on the SKEP model.We construct sentiment series, and analyze the stationarity, randomness, and chaos of emotional series.【Result/conclusion】The research results show that the formation of public opinion is a process system.The group emotion expression is a continuous process of this system.At different periods, group emotion expression presents different dynamic characteristics.In the initial period,the sentiment series is generated by a random system.During the outbreak period, the chaotic system dominates the group emotion expression mechanism.The expression process of group emotion in the chronic period is a second-order Markov process, which is dominated by a stable non-chaotic system.【Innovation/limitation】This study explores the dynamic mechanism of group emotional expression in the crisis, and enriches the theoretical perspective.However, this study only focuses on the crisis.In the future, we will study and compare the differences of group emotional expression dynamic mechanism between crisis situations and other situations.