不同驱动机制下绿色金融发展的宏观经济效应研究

Research on the Macroeconomic Effects of Green Financial Development under Different Driving Mechanisms

近年来中国的绿色金融蓬勃发展。本文基于我国"发展绿色金融"的战略需求,分析市场及政府行为等不同驱动机制下的绿色金融发展方式对我国宏观经济的影响和作用。这是对以往绿色金融研究缺乏驱动机制研究的重要完善。本文利用FAVAR模型就市场需求、政府引导以及金融行业自身绿色转变这3种绿色金融驱动机制对我国相应的宏观经济综合要素进行冲击效应分析。本文的重要贡献是提出了绿色金融实证研究的新视角。本文的重要发现是不同驱动机制下的绿色金融发展作用差异明显:绿色金融的市场需求驱动对宏观经济的整体水平及可持续指标具有正向的且较持久的拉动作用,但在一定程度上会加剧通胀;绿色金融的政府引导驱动作用表现出较强的波动性,但短期内见效最大;金融行业自身的绿色转型驱动对宏观经济有着明显的长期向好的推动趋势,对于整体的物价水平也会起到抑制作用,但现阶段表现在绝对值上的作用上仍较小。有的放矢地精准发展绿色金融是本文重要的政策含义。

Based on the background of the vigorous development of green finance in China,this paper uses FAVAR model to analyzes the impact of green finance under different driving mechanisms on China’s important macroeconomic indicators.The composite index of macroeconomic activity,price and sustainable development are extracted from 55 economic indicators since 2016 to 2019.The driving mechanism includes the market-demand-drive,the government-oriented drive and the green transformation drive.The main conclusions are as follows:the market-demand drive has a positive and lasting effect on the overall level and sustainable indicators of the macro economy,but it will aggravate inflation to a certain extent,and the government-oriented drive shows strong volatility,but the effect is the greatest in the short term.The green transformation drive has an obvious long-term trend to promote the macro-economy,and it will also have a restraining effect on inflation,but it still plays a small role in the absolute value at current stage.The policy suggestions are given at the end of the study.