“利率走廊”上限击穿是否改变货币政策有效性?——兼论中央银行在经济反弹时期下的调控偏好

Does the Ceiling Breakdown of the “Interest Rate Corridor” Change the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy?——On the Central Bank’s Control Preferences during the Period of Economic Rebound

遴选利率走廊击穿时期与常规时期下的货币政策反应函数,以此识别不同时期下中央银行货币政策的有效性与调控偏好。结果显示:常规时期下利率调控将兼顾通胀和产出;而在走廊上限击穿时期,中央银行将实施通货膨胀单目标管理,这说明通胀端的单边异动是利率走廊危机管理中所要重点关注的情形。最后,在利率击穿时期,中央银行的利率调控无法完全平抑通胀波动,这意味着中央银行仍需完善走廊上限击穿时期下的应急管理机制,其中以利率调控配合价格管制等行政干预不失为一种有益的政策尝试。

This paper estimates the monetary policy response function both under the breakdown period and the regular period of interest rate corridor,so as to identify the policy effectiveness and regulation preference in different periods.The results show that the interest rate adjustment takes into account inflation and output in the normal periods;but during the breakdown period,the central bank will implement unilateral management of inflation targeting,which shows that the unilateral change of inflation is the focus of interest rate corridor crisis management.Finally,the central bank’s interest rate regulation can not stabilize inflation fluctuations during crisis period,which means that the central bank needs to improve the emergency management ability during the corridor breakdown period,in which interest rate regulation combined with administrative intervention such as price control may be a useful policy attempt.