从中央调剂走向统收统支——全国统筹能降低养老保险财政负担吗?

From Central Adjustment System to Unified Collection and Allocation System: Can National Pooling Reduce the Fiscal Burden of Pension Insurance?

随着老龄化程度加深,养老保险基金支付能力减弱,财政压力逐年加重,而《"十四五"规划纲要》指出实现养老保险全国统筹,即从中央调剂制度转向全国统收统支制度。这一制度转变能降低养老保险财政负担吗?文章运用计量模型和精算模型分析发现:第一,在仍实施中央调剂制度的情况下,养老保险财政负担将从2021年的2 586.53亿元增加至2050年的142.77万亿元,累计财政负担为1 255.94万亿元;第二,如果实现养老保险全国统收统支,在中央政府不采取严格监管措施的情况下,地方政府征收行为将发生变化,养老保险征缴率会下降16.1个百分点,虽然2023年及以前财政负担比实施中央调剂制度时至少下降82.34%,但2024-2050年财政负担比实施中央调剂制度时上升12.12%-184%,累计财政负担提高21.74%;第三,若进一步提高征缴率,当征缴率每增加1个百分点,累计财政负担比实施全国统收统支制度时下降1.11%。因此,在实施养老保险全国统筹的过程中,国家应重视地方政府征收行为的变化,并尽快制定奖惩机制、提高征缴率,以增强养老保险基金应对老龄化问题的能力。

With the deepening of population aging, the solvency of pension insurance funds has weakened, and fiscal pressure has increased year by year. Although the central adjustment system for pension insurance eased the payment pressure of provinces with fund losses to a certain extent, it could not significantly reduce the fiscal burden of pension insurance. The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan pointed out that national pooling should be achieved in pension insurance, that is, from the central adjustment system to the unified collection and allocation system. Can this transition reduce the fiscal burden of pension insurance? This paper firstly explains the impact mechanism of national unified collection and allocation on the fiscal burden of pension insurance from the theoretical level, and then uses provincial panel data and actuarial models to quantitatively evaluate it. The result shows that: Firstly, when the central adjustment system is still implemented, the fiscal burden of pension insurance will increase from 258.653 billion Yuan in 2021 to 142.77 trillion Yuan in2050, and the cumulative fiscal burden will be 1 255.94 trillion Yuan. Secondly, if unified collection and allocation is achieved and the central government does not adopt strict supervision, the collection behavior of local governments will change, and the pension insurance collection rate will drop by 16.1%. Although the fiscal burden in 2023 and before will be reduced by at least 82.34% compared with the implementation of the central adjustment system, the fiscal burden from 2024 to 2050 will increase by 12.12%-184% compared with the central adjustment system, and the cumulative fiscal burden will also increase by 21.74%. Thirdly, if the collection rate is further increased, for every percentage increase, the cumulative fiscal burden will drop by 1.11%compared with the implementation of the national unified collection and allocation system. It can be seen that in the process of implementing the national pooling of social pension insurance, the country should pay attention to local governments’ collection behavior change, introduce reward and punishment policies, and improve the collection rate as soon as possible to enhance the pension insurance funds’ ability of dealing with aging. Taking local governments’ collection behavior into account,this paper uses the exogenous policy intervention of pension insurance from the provincial adjustment system to the provincial unified collection and allocation system to approximately analyze the collection behavior change of local governments from the central adjustment system to the national unified collection and allocation system. It provides a feasible way to solve this kind of problem.