中国企业出口具有学习效应吗?——来自“英国脱欧”自然实验的新证据

Can Chinese corporate exports enjoy learning by exporting:New evidence from a Quasi-experiment based on Brexit

出口学习抑或自我选择?一直是经济学辨明出口与创新因果关系悬而未决的争论。本文利用英国脱离欧盟这一外生事件,为研究我国企业出口与技术创新的因果关系提供了新的证据。以A股上市公司为样本,准确识别出出口只限欧盟(包括英国)的实验组公司,和出口非欧盟地区的对照组公司,在使用双重差分法后发现,相对于对照组而言,英国宣布脱欧导致实验组出口收入锐减,进而导致研发投入显著下降和专利产出显著减少。这证明中国企业出口学习效应的存在。在使用动态分析模型后进一步发现出口学习效应存在逐年递增的滞后效应。本文的发现和结论为政府和企业应对日趋复杂多变的国际贸易环境以及深化技术创新提供了决策依据和政策建议。

Learning by exporting or self-selection is the two major debates about the causal relationship between export and innovation in recent literature.This paper provides new evidence for the study of the causal relationship between Chinese corporate exports and technological innovation by using the exogenous event of Brexit.Taking A-share listed companies as the sample,we accurately identify the treatment group whose exports are limited to the EU(including the UK),and the control group that export to the non-EU region.After using difference-in-differences regressions,we found that compared with the control group,the announcement of Brexit has caused a significant drop in exports of the treatment group,which in turn has led to a significant reduction in their R&D input and patent output.The findings prove the learning by export effect.After using the dynamic analysis model,we further found that there is a hysteresis effect,increasing year by year.This paper provides meaningful policy implications for Chinese governments and companies to respond to the increasingly complex and changing international trade environment and deepen technological innovation.