人口老龄化、移民与经济增长

Population aging,immigration and economic growth

人口老龄化带来的人口结构失衡阻碍了经济增长,而移民一定程度上可以直接补充经济系统中的劳动力,因此受到广泛关注.为探讨移民对老龄经济系统的影响,本文构建了基于移民的老龄经济模型.该经济系统在一定条件下,存在唯一鞍型稳定的平衡增长路径.在此路径中,移民的作用是"中性"的,对经济系统仅存在水平效应而无增长效应.即引入移民提高了均衡总资本和总产出水平,并提高了社会福利,但并不影响产出或资本增长率,也并未缓解人口老龄化对经济增长的不利影响.为使移民政策在老龄化背景下发挥积极作用,本文进一步将技术进步率表示为移民的函数,由此说明,引入高人力资本的移民,可以在一定程度上抵消人口老龄化的负面作用,从而在长期促进经济增长.

The continuous imbalance of population structure brought about by population aging hinders economic growth.Immigration,to some extent,can directly supplement the labor force in the economic system.In order to explore the impact of immigration on aging economy,this paper constructs an economic model of aging based on immigration.Under certain conditions,this economic system has a unique saddle stable equilibrium growth path.On the saddle path,the role of immigration is "neutral",showing only a level effect rather than a rate effect on the economic system.Immigration improves the level of total capital,total output and social welfare on the equilibrium,but neither affects the growth rate of output or capital,nor alleviates the adverse impacts of population aging on economic growth.To make the immigration policy play a positive role in the background of aging,this paper further develops the rate of technological progress as a function of immigration,thus showing that introduction of immigrants with high human capital can offset the negative effects of population aging to a certain extent,so as to promote economic growth in the long run.