基础设施投资仍然是有效的扩张性工具吗?——基于增长质量视角的流量效应分析

Is Infrastructure Investment Still an Effective Policy Tool?Flow Effect Analysis Based on Growth Quality Perspective

本文使用主成分分析法测度经济增长质量,基于投资流量识别了基础设施投资作为政策工具的有效性,并从挤出效应和乘数效应两个维度考察了政策工具的排他性和互补性。结果表明:中国基础设施投资整体上显著提高了经济增长的质量,使用工具变量进行2SLS和系统GMM检验,结果依然稳健。在全球金融危机期间基础设施投资的作用显著上升,仍然是短期逆周期调整的有效工具。基础设施投资具有典型的网络效应特征,内部和外部基础设施密度越高,投资的边际作用越强;短期内基础设施投资扩张能够促进私人部门的消费,但长期大规模投资则可能挤压非生产性公共支出,损害经济增长的质量。上述发现从增长质量层面回答了对于基础设施投资效果的理论争论,可为应对外部冲击的政策实践提供实证参考。

In this paper, we use principal component analysis to measure the quality of economic growth, identify the effectiveness of infrastructure investment as a policy tool based on investment flows, and investigate the exclusivity and complementarity of policy tools from two dimensions of crowding out effect and multiplier effect.The results show that infrastructure investment in China as a whole significantly improves the quality of economic growth and the results remain robust after using instrumental variables to perform 2SLS and system GMM tests.The role of infrastructure investment increased significantly during the global financial crisis and remains an effective tool for short-term counter-cyclical adjustments. Infrastructure investment has a typical characteristics of network effect.The higher the density of internal and external infrastructure, the stronger the marginal effect of investment.The expansion of infrastructure investment can boost private sector consumption in the short run, but in the long run large investments may squeeze non-productive public expenditure and harm the quality of economic growth.These findings above answer the theoretical debate on the effect of infrastructure investment from the perspective of growth quality and can provide empirical reference for policy in response to external shocks.