子代质量偏好、养老保险缴费率与家庭储蓄-教育投入权衡

Quality-preference on Offspring,Pension Insurance Contribution Rate and Family Savings-Education Trade-off

随着养老保障制度的完善和生育观念的转变,我国家庭的储蓄-教育权衡模式正逐渐发生变化,本文通过理论模型、实证检验和数值模拟对此进行了研究。理论研究表明:对于具有子代质量偏好的代表性消费者,统筹账户缴费率上升对其储蓄和子女教育投入均存在挤出效应;个人账户缴费率上升对子女教育投入没有影响,对储蓄存在挤出效应;子代质量偏好程度上升对储蓄存在挤出效应。实证检验表明:子代质量偏好和养老保险对流动人口家庭的储蓄行为影响不足。为解决养老保险基金的支付危机,政府政策选择的优先级依次是:出台措施缓解少子化危机、以财政补充养老保险基金、提高个人账户缴费率、提高统筹账户缴费率。本文为分析当前我国家庭的经济决策模式、缓解养老保险基金支付危机的政策选择提供了理论支撑。

With the improvement of the old-age security system and the transformation of fertility concepts, the savings-education trade-off of Chinese families is gradually changing.We study this phenomenon by theoretical models, empirical tests and numerical simulations.Result of theoretical research shows that for representative consumers with a preference for quality of offspring, the increase in the contribution rate of the pooling account has a crowd-out effect on their savings and their children’s education investment;the increase in contribution rate of personal account has no effect on their children’s education investment, but has a crowd-out effect on savings;the increase in the degree of quality preference of offspring has a crowd-out effect on savings.The empirical results show that the quality preference of offspring and endowment insurance have insufficient influence on the savings behavior of floating population families.In order to solve the payment crisis of the pension insurance fund, the priority of government policy choices can be: introducing measures to alleviate the crisis of declining birthrate;supplementing the pension insurance fund with finance revenue;increasing the contribution rate of personal accounts;and increasing the payment rate of the pooling account.Our work provides a theoretical support for analyzing the current economic decision-making pattern of the current Chinese family and the policy choices to alleviate the payment crisis of pension insurance funds.