灰色模型在原油管道蜡沉积速率预测中的应用

Application of Grey Model in Prediction of Wax Deposition Rate in Crude Oil Pipeline

为了对原油管道内蜡沉积速率进行准确预测,基于灰色GM(1,N)模型理论和建模思路,综合考虑了管壁处剪切应力、管壁处温度梯度、管壁处蜡分子浓度梯度和原油的动力黏度4个影响因素,建立了GM(1,5)蜡沉积速率模型,并与黄启玉蜡沉积模型进行模型精度对比。结果表明:GM(1,5)蜡沉积速率模型的平均相对误差为2.9555%,模型精度高于黄启玉蜡沉积模型;通过对GM(1,5)蜡沉积速率模型的灰色参数进行分析,管壁处蜡分子浓度梯度、管壁处温度梯度对蜡沉积速率影响最大;采用灰色GM(1,N)模型来预测管道的蜡沉积速率是可行的,可为原油管道蜡沉积规律的深入研究和制订合理的清蜡周期提供参考。

In order to accurately predict wax deposition rate in crude oil pipeline,a GM(1,N)wax deposition rate model was established based on grey GM(1,N)model theory and modeling idea,which comprehensively considered four influencing factors:shear stress at pipe wall,temperature gradient at pipe wall,wax molecular concentration gradient at pipe wall and dynamic viscosity of crude oil,and the model accuracy was compared with that of Huang Qiyu wax deposition model.The results show that the average relative error of GM(1,5)wax deposition rate model is 2.9555%,and the accuracy of the model is higher than that of Huang Qiyu wax deposition model.By analyzing the grey parameters of GM(1,5)wax deposition rate model,it is found that the wax molecular concentration gradient at the pipe wall and the temperature gradient at the pipe wall have the greatest influence on the wax deposition rate.It is feasible to use grey GM(1,N)model to predict the wax deposition rate of pipelines,which can provide reference for further study of wax deposition law of crude oil pipelines and formulation of reasonable wax removal cycle.