财政支出推动了区域制造业升级吗?——基于基础设施与基本公共服务双重视角的实证检验

Does Fiscal Expenditure Promote the Upgrading of Regional Manufacturing Industry?Empirical Test Based on the Dual Perspective of Infrastructure and Basic Public Services

文章使用我国28个省份2008-2016年的面板数据,研究了财政一般预算支出中最为重要的基本公共服务与基础设施支出对制造业升级的经济效应,及其区域异质性和技术进步阶段的非线性特征。研究发现,一般预算支出以及其中的基本公共服务支出对制造业结构向高端化升级的经济效应呈现出很强的异质性和边际递减的特征,而这种特征主要来自于东部地区的两类财政支出的促进效应以及中西部地区的阻碍效应的共同作用;特别是在工业化进展缓慢且大量依赖转移支付的五个西部省份,基础设施支出与基本公共服务支出均在2010年前后表现出对制造业升级由正转负的经济效应;随着创新型技术进步水平的提高,基本公共服务支出对制造业升级的促进作用会逐渐加强。在"减税降费"的大环境下,文章为财政支出效率的提高、制造业升级的区域政策设计以及财政支出结构的优化提供经验证据。

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee set the tone that China’s manufacturing industry should upgrade to advanced,intelligent and high quality.In the traditional theory of industrial structure upgrading,fiscal expenditure is not the main influencing factor.In the new pattern of“dual circulation”development of Chinese economy,the important role of government in economic development should not be ignored in the study of the high-end upgrading of manufacturing industry.Using the panel data of 28 provinces in China from 2008 to2016,this paper deeply studies the economic effect of the most important expenditure on basic public services and infrastructure on the upgrading of manufacturing industry,as well as the regional heterogeneity and the nonlinear characteristics of the technological progress stage.It is found that the economic effect of general budget expenditure and basic public service expenditure on the high-end upgrading of manufacturing structure shows the characteristics of strong heterogeneity and marginal decline,which mainly comes from the promotion effect of the two types of fiscal expenditure in the eastern region and the hindrance effect in the central and western regions.Especially in the five western provinces where industrialization is slow and heavily dependent on transfer payments,infrastructure expenditure and basic public service expenditure show negative economic effects around 2010,but this does not completely mean the failure of the policy effect of local governments.Poverty reduction and poverty alleviation in such underdeveloped areas often rely more on the development of labor-intensive manufacturing industry.With the improvement of the level of innovative technological progress,the role of basic public service expenditure in promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry will be gradually strengthened.This paper holds that under the new pattern,the eastern provinces should increase investment in information infrastructure,promote the reform of affordable housing,and release the restrictions on both the household registration of high-skilled talents and the school district of children’s basic education.The central provinces should give further play to the role of the market in allocating resources,and focus on improving the quality of public services such as education and medical treatment to the eastern region,so as to better undertake the transfer of high-skilled talents and manufacturing industry in the eastern region.For special provinces with slow industrialization and mainly relying on central transfer payments,we can appropriately increase the proportion of special transfer payments,strengthen the guidance of subsidies and financial policies on social capital,and stimulate the vitality of market players.Under the background of“tax cut and fee reduction”,this paper provides empirical evidence for the improvement of government fiscal expenditure efficiency,the regional policy design of the upgrading of manufacturing industry,and the optimization of fiscal expenditure structure.