基于Sobol方法的中国日潜在蒸发量敏感性分析

Analysis of daily potential evaporation sensitivity based on Sobol method in China

基于中国760个气象站1961—2019年逐日资料,采用时序、地统计和Sobol敏感性分析探究潜在蒸发量时空分布规律及成因。结果表明中国大部分区域潜在蒸发量、净辐射量、相对湿度、风速倾向率和Mann-Kendall趋势检验系数小于0,诸要素整体减少;大部分区域气温倾向率和Mann-Kendall趋势系数大于0,年均气温上升;各站日气温、净辐射量一阶和总敏感系数及其差值均较大,日均潜在蒸发量对温度和净辐射量更敏感,并受二者协同影响。

Based on the daily data of 760 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2019,the temporal and spatial distribution pattern and causes of potential evaporation are explored by using time series,geostatistics and Sobol sensitivity analysis.The results show that the potential evaporation,net radiation,relative humidity,wind speed tendency rate and Mann Kendall trend test coefficient in most regions of China are less than 0,and all factors are reduced as a whole;that the temperature tendency rate and Mann Kendall trend coefficient in most regions are greater than 0,and the average annual temperature rises.The first-order and total sensitivity coefficients and their differences of daily temperature and net radiation of each station are large.The daily average potential evaporation is more sensitive to temperature and net radiation,and affected by the synergy of the two factors.