人口老龄化对西部地区制造业发展影响研究

Effects of Population Ageing on West China’s Manufacturing Industries

在老龄化日趋严重和世界经贸格局深刻变化背景下,本文从理论层面分析了人口老龄化对制造业发展的影响机理,基于2005-2019年西部地区省级层面数据,构建中介效应模型实证考察人口老龄化对西部地区制造业的影响,以及对西南与西北地区制造业影响的异质性。结果表明,人口老龄化程度提高会对西部地区制造业发展产生不利影响,但同时也可以通过提高人力资本积累水平,降低老龄化对西部地区制造业发展的负面影响。分区域进一步研究表明,人口老龄化对西部地区制造业的影响,主要是通过对西南地区制造业发展的负面效应而产生作用,对西北地区制造业发展影响并不显著。

In 2020 China’s elderly provision reached 19.7%,and thus ageing has become a serious social problem.This paper analyzes the effects of population ageing on manufacturing industries,and based on the province-level figures of west China from 2005 to 2019,constructs a medium-effect model to empirically investigate the impact of ageing on west China’s manufacturing industries,and shows the discrepancies between southwest and northwest China.Our study indicates that population ageing has a negative influence on west China’s manufacturing industries but we could reduce the influence through improving human capital accumulation.Interregional research reveals that ageing has more effects on manufacturing industries in southwest China than in northwest China.