汇率预期管理、贸易开放与外国来华投资——基于贸易开放传导路径的研究

Exchange Rate Expectation Management,Trade Openness and Foreign Investment in China——Based on the Transmission Path of Trade Openness

复杂的外汇业务流程和较高的入市门槛严重影响了市场主体外汇避险业务主观意愿,一旦市场相对均衡被打破,将引发群体性跨境投资配置失衡,增加政策管理难度。本文将研究机构、银行和非银机构对汇率走势的判断纳入汇率预期分析,并通过熵权综合指数法构建异质性汇率预期指数。在理论分析跨境投资存在信息不对称影响路径的基础上,利用中介效应模型,基于分行业中介效应面板数据分析汇率预期对FDI的直接影响和通过影响贸易开放对FDI的间接影响。理论研究表明:汇率预期除了能够直接影响FDI,还会通过影响贸易开放水平间接影响跨境投资者的心理预期和FDI规模。实证研究显示:本币升值预期能够直接增强FDI投资者的投资信心,贸易开放在汇率预期影响FDI中起到部分中介作用,汇率预期通过出口贸易依存度对FDI的中介效应显著高于通过进口依存度对FDI的遮掩效应。最后就探讨完善跨境投资预期管理机制提出政策建议。

Complicated foreign exchange business process and high market entry threshold seriously affect the subjective will of foreign exchange hedging business of market participants.Once the market relative equilibrium is broken,it will lead to the imbalance of cross-border investment allocation and increase the difficulty of policy management.In this paper,the judgments of exchange rate trends by research institutions,banks and non-bank institutions are incorporated into the analysis of exchange rate expectations,and a heterogeneous exchange rate expectation index is constructed by the entropy-weighted composite index method.Based on the theoretical analysis of the existence of information asymmetry impact path of cross-border investment,the mediating effect model is used to analyze the direct impact of exchange rate expectations on FDI and the indirect impact on FDI through the impact of trade opening based on the mediating effect panel data by industry.Theoretical studies show that exchange rate expectations can directly affect FDI,but also indirectly affect cross-border investors'psychological expectations and FDI scale by influencing the level of trade openness.The empirical study indicates that:local currency appreciation expectations can directly enhance the investment confidence of FDI investors,trade openness plays a partially mediating role in the influence of exchange rate expectations on FDI,and the mediating effect of exchange rate expectations on FDI through export trade dependence is significantly higher than the masking effect on FDI through import dependence.Finally,policy suggestions on improving the expected management mechanism of cross-border investment are put forward.