“三生”维度下的乡村旅游集聚区发展效应研究

Research on the development effect of rural tourism agglomeration area under the “three living” dimensions

为了提高乡村旅游聚集区的"三生"效应,通过马尔科夫模型、回归分析模型及层次分析方法,分别实现建构乡村旅游聚集区影响能力的时空变化预测模型、格局变化分析模型和影响效应评级模型,并对模型进行效应评测。结果表明,2008—2020年,乡村旅游聚集区的发展为乡村带来38.63%的生产效益及15.82%的生活效益,但却损耗了5.71%的生态效益。经过驱动力控制设计,预测未来10年间将会实现34.25%的生态效益。

In order to improve the“three living”effect of rural tourism gathering area. Markov model,regression analysis model and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)were introduced to construct the spatial-temporal change prediction model,pattern change analysis model and impact effect rating model of rural tourism agglomeration area. The results showed that during 2008—2020,with the development of rural tourism cluster,38.63% of the production benefits and 15.82% of the life benefits were brought to the rural areas,but5.71% of the ecological benefits were lost. After driving force control design,it was predicted that 34.25% of ecological benefits will be achieved in the next 10 years.