基于目标情景的中国铝生产碳减排与碳达峰分析

Analysis of carbon emission reduction and carbon emission peak for aluminum production in China based on target scenario

本研究在国家碳达峰目标的指引下,梳理并核算了原铝生产温室气体排放的历史数据,并以此为基础,通过对未来15年中国电解铝生产技术改进潜力、电力结构调整及再生铝产量等因素的预测,建立原铝温室气体排放的多因素分析模型,探究在基准情景(BAU)、低改进效率情景(LIR)和高改进效率(HIR)三种情景下我国原铝生产温室气体减排和碳达峰路径。结果表明:我国历年吨铝温室气体排放潜力呈现下降趋势。预测了电解铝先进技术应用、电力消费结构变化及提高再生铝占比对降低吨铝温室气体排放的影响。我国铝生产温室气体排放在BAU情景下将在2030年达到峰值,在LIR情景下将在2027年达到峰值,在HIR情景下将在2021年达到峰值。给出了三种情景下铝产量的增长率,作为确保碳达峰后的限定条件。

According to the guidance of the national carbon peak target,the historical data of greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from primary aluminum production were calculated and analyzed in this study.A multi-factor analysis model of GHG emissions from primary aluminum was established by forecasting the potential for improvement of electrolytic aluminum production technology,power structure adjustment and recycled aluminum production in China for the next 15 years.The GHG emission reduction and carbon peaking pathways of primary aluminum production in China were explored under three scenarios including the baseline scenario(BAU),the low improvement efficiency scenario(LIR)and the high improvement efficiency scenario(HIR).The results show that the GHG emission potential of 1 ton primary aluminum production in China illustrated a decreasing trend over the years.The potential of the advanced technology application of aluminum electrolysis,the change of electricity consumption structure and increasing the proportion of recycled aluminum for the GHG emissions reduction of 1 ton aluminum were forecasted.The GHG emissions of China primary aluminum production would peak in 2030 with the BAU scenario,while in 2027 with the LIR scenario and in 2021 with the HIR scenario,respectively.The variation range of aluminum output in the three scenarios was then given as the limiting condition to ensure the peak.