基于概率预测的电网静态安全运行风险评估及主动调控策略

Probability Prediction Based Risk Assessment and Proactive Regulation and Control Strategy for Static Operation Safety of Power Grid

近年来,随着电网互联层级和规模的高速发展以及新能源、电力电子设备的大规模接入,电力系统的不确定性和调控需求都在持续增加。为解决当前电网调度控制方式基于联络线越限等经验特征量异常触发、缺乏主动性和预见性调控手段的问题,提出了一种基于概率预测的电网安全运行风险评估及主动调控方法。首先,构建了基于长短期记忆网络和支持向量机的滚动概率预测模型。然后,从充裕度的角度建立了常见风险事件的严重度函数,从而实现对关键元件的越限概率预测,并计算得到量化风险以形成触发机制,实现电力系统面对风险事件的主动调控。最后,在IEEE 39节点系统上结合中国某省电网的实际负荷数据进行仿真,计算结果验证了所提方法和模型能够实现提前主动调控,有效规避安全运行风险。

In recent years,the level and scale of power grid interconnection have developed rapidly,integration the uncertainty and the regulation and control requirement of the power system keep increasing with the large-scale integration of new energy and power electronic equipment.The current power grid regulation and control method has the problems such as dependence on the abnormal triggering of the experience characteristic quantity and the lack of the regulation and control means for proactivity and predictability based on the out-of-limit of the tie line.In order to solve the problems,a method of risk assessment and proactive regulation and control is proposed for power grid operation safety based on probability prediction.Firstly,a rolling probability prediction model based on long short-term memory(LSTM)network and support vector machine(SVM)is constructed.Then,the severity function of common risk events is established from the perspective of sufficiency to achieve the over-limit probability prediction of key elements.Also,the quantitative risk is calculated to form a trigger mechanism so that the proactive regulation and control of the power system for risk events is realized.Finally,a simulation is carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system combined with the actual load data of a certain provincial power grid in China.The calculation results verify that the proposed method and model can realize the proactive regulation and control in advance and effectively avoid the risks of safe operation.