摘要
近年来,随着电网互联层级和规模的高速发展以及新能源、电力电子设备的大规模接入,电力系统的不确定性和调控需求都在持续增加。为解决当前电网调度控制方式基于联络线越限等经验特征量异常触发、缺乏主动性和预见性调控手段的问题,提出了一种基于概率预测的电网安全运行风险评估及主动调控方法。首先,构建了基于长短期记忆网络和支持向量机的滚动概率预测模型。然后,从充裕度的角度建立了常见风险事件的严重度函数,从而实现对关键元件的越限概率预测,并计算得到量化风险以形成触发机制,实现电力系统面对风险事件的主动调控。最后,在IEEE 39节点系统上结合中国某省电网的实际负荷数据进行仿真,计算结果验证了所提方法和模型能够实现提前主动调控,有效规避安全运行风险。
In recent years,the level and scale of power grid interconnection have developed rapidly,integration the uncertainty and the regulation and control requirement of the power system keep increasing with the large-scale integration of new energy and power electronic equipment.The current power grid regulation and control method has the problems such as dependence on the abnormal triggering of the experience characteristic quantity and the lack of the regulation and control means for proactivity and predictability based on the out-of-limit of the tie line.In order to solve the problems,a method of risk assessment and proactive regulation and control is proposed for power grid operation safety based on probability prediction.Firstly,a rolling probability prediction model based on long short-term memory(LSTM)network and support vector machine(SVM)is constructed.Then,the severity function of common risk events is established from the perspective of sufficiency to achieve the over-limit probability prediction of key elements.Also,the quantitative risk is calculated to form a trigger mechanism so that the proactive regulation and control of the power system for risk events is realized.Finally,a simulation is carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system combined with the actual load data of a certain provincial power grid in China.The calculation results verify that the proposed method and model can realize the proactive regulation and control in advance and effectively avoid the risks of safe operation.
作者
徐浩
姜新雄
刘志成
邹曜坤
廖思阳
徐箭
XU Hao;JIANG Xinxiong;LIU Zhicheng;ZOU Yaokun;LIAO Siyang;XU Jian(Central China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China,Wuhan 430077,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期182-191,共10页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家电网公司科技项目(SGHZ0000DKJS2100256)~~。
关键词
概率预测
风险预警
主动调控
长短期记忆网络
支持向量机
时序预测
机器学习
数据驱动
probabilistic prediction
risk pre-warning
proactive regulation and control
long short-term memory(LSTM)network
support vector machine(SVM)
time series prediction
machine learning
data-driven