基于HAZOP-集对分析理论的制磷电炉风险评价

The risk evaluation of phosphorus furnace based on HAZOP set-pair analysis theory

为确定制磷电炉总体的风险等级及风险转化趋势,提出了一种基于HAZOP-集对分析理论的制磷电炉风险评价模型。根据电炉制磷单元的工艺流程,对制磷电炉进行了HAZOP分析,以HAZOP分析中的事故原因为基础构建了制磷电炉风险评价指标体系,并结合制磷电炉生产现状,选取人员和管理方面的重要因素作为评价指标,将制磷电炉风险划分为5个等级,最后确定评价指标组合权重以及评价指标与制磷电炉的联系度及集对势。将此模型应用于云南省某企业的制磷电炉风险评价中,结果显示该制磷电炉处于较安全等级,其中电炉密闭性差、原料配比不合格、人员违章作业、安全管理制度不完善等因素对制磷电炉的风险影响较大,并提出了应对措施。本模型不但能够辨识制磷电炉存在的安全隐患,而且能够定量分析制磷电炉的风险等级及风险转化趋势,有助于采取合理的预防措施,避免事故的发生。

In order to define the overall risk level and risk transition of electric furnace used for phosphorus production,a risk evaluation model of electric furnace for phosphorus production based on HAZOP set-pair analysis theory was presented.According to the process circuit of phosphorus furnace unit,the HAZOP analysis on the furnace was carried out.Based on the accident causes in the course of HAZOP analysis,the risk evaluation system of electric phosphorus furnace was constructed.Combined with the operating conditions for the electric phosphorus furnace,personnel and management were selected as the critical evaluation factors,and the risk of electric phosphorus furnace can be classified into five levels.Finally the combination weight of evaluation factors and their relative degree as well as set-pair potential with the electric furnace for phosphorus production were determined.As the model was applied to the risk evaluation of phosphorus furnace in a company in Yunnan Province,the results show that the phosphorus furnace remains at a relatively safe level.However such factors as poor sealing performance,non-conformity raw material ratio,operation against rules and imperfect safety management system had a great impact on the risk of phosphorus furnace,thus some solutions were put forward.The results show that the model can be employed not only to identify the potential safety hazard of phosphorus furnace,but also to quantitatively study the risk level and risk transition of phosphorus furnace,which facilitates the execution of reasonable precautions to prevent it from any accidents.