最优货币区标准的内生性检验——基于通货膨胀率标准的实证分析

On the Endogenous Test of Criteria for Optimum Currency Area--Based on the Empirical Analysis of Inflation Rate Standard

通过利用欧盟24个国家1995—2018年的数据,采取3SLS估计方法实证分析最优货币区的标准之一——通货膨胀率是否具有内生性,研究发现货币同盟和通货膨胀率可以相互影响,通货膨胀率低的国家易于组成货币同盟,而且货币同盟也有助于一个国家降低通货膨胀率,并得出结论,即判断最优货币区的"事前"条件,会得到"事后"加强或满足。

One of the standards of the most optimum currency area——whether inflation rate has endogenous quality or not is analyzed empirically through using the data of 1995—2018 of 24 countries of EU and 3 SLS evaluation method.The result is that currency league and inflation rate can be mutually affected.The countries with low inflation rate are easy to compose currency league and currency league is helpful to reduce a country’s inflation rate.It is concluded that identifying the prior conditions of the most optimum currency area will get post advancement or fulfillment.