疫情反复与结构性调整冲击下的中国宏观经济复苏--2021—2022年中国宏观经济报告

CHINA’S MACROECONOMIC RECOVERY UNDER THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 REVERSAL AND STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT--China’s Macroeconomic Report 2021—2022

2021年是中国宏观经济持续复苏的一年,呈现出"前高后低"、"结构分化"和"压力加剧"的特征。一方面,新冠肺炎疫情防控的总体稳定、外资外贸的景气持续、高新技术产业的持续向好以及全面小康目标的顺利完成,为中国宏观经济在疫情期间的持续复苏提供了持续的动力和坚实的基础;另一方面,新冠肺炎疫情的反复、极端天气的出现、大宗商品价格的高企、宏观经济政策的快速常态化、房地产和碳减排等结构性调整政策的同步实施、金融风险的控制以及平台整顿引发的社会舆情变化,使中国宏观经济下行压力自2021年第二季度起持续上扬,经济复苏进程有所放缓,负向产出缺口有所扩大,前高后低的态势明显放大。2022年是党的二十大召开之年,"十四五"规划全面落实、新发展格局全面布局的一年。一方面,2022年中国宏观经济将部分延续2021年宏观经济复苏的动力和基础;另一方面,在宏观经济政策再定位、协调体系再调整以及"十四五"规划全面落实等因素的作用下,宏观经济下行压力将得到极大缓解。但值得注意的是,如何在结构性政策与总量性政策、逆周期政策与跨周期政策之间寻找到新的平衡依然面临许多挑战。

2021 is a year of sustained recovery of China’s macro economy,showing the characteristics of"front high rear low","structural differentiation"and"increased pressure".On the one hand,the overall stability of epidemic prevention and control,the continued prosperity of foreign trade,the continuous improvement of high-tech industries and the successful completion of the goal of an all-round well-off society have provided a sustained driving force and solid foundation for the sustained recovery of China’s macroeconomy during the epidemic period.On the other hand,downward pressure of China’s macroeconomy has continued to rise since Q2 of 2021,due to COVID-19’s reversal,extreme weather events,high commodity prices,rapid macroeconomic policy,real estate and carbon emissions reduction and other structural adjustment policies,financial risk control,and social public opinion changes triggered by platform rectification.The process of economic recovery has slowed down,and the negative output gap has widened.2022 is the year of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the full implementation of the 14 th five-year plan and the comprehensive layout of the new development pattern.On one hand,in 2022,China’s macroeconomy will partially continue the driving force and foundation of macroeconomic recovery in 2021.On the other hand,under the influence of factors such as the repositioning of macroeconomic policies,the readjustment of coordination system and the full implementation of the 14 th five-year plan,the downward pressure on macroeconomic will be greatly relieved.However,it is worth noting that how to find a new balance between structural policy and aggregate policy,counter-cyclical policy and cross-cyclical policy still faces many challenges.