地方政府举债的货币扩张效应及其政策协同

The Monetary Expansion Effect of Local Government Debt and Its Policy Coordination

各国政府均会面临日益频繁出现的社会供需总量有悖于货币流通和金融稳定的诸多问题,为此财政与金融当局综合运用各种政策工具力求实现经济的稳定和协调发展。作为国家宏观调控的重要工具之一,地方政府举债如何避免政策冲突并最大化政策组合效力,是当前亟待深入研究的重要课题。本文通过构建包含金融摩擦、多期债券和举债规则等要素在内的NK-DSGE模型,深入剖析地方政府举债的货币效应和传导机制,并探讨其与货币政策协同配合的最佳模式。研究发现:(1)1%的地方政府举债冲击(债券久期=5年)会推动货币乘数上升0.39%,产生货币扩张效应,且债券久期越长,该扩张效应越大;(2)面对实体冲击和金融冲击,货币政策对地方政府举债采取适度从紧的反向协同配合,能有效抑制其货币扩张效应,更好地实现经济稳定和复苏;(3)对于久期较长的债券,提高地方政府举债规则的风险反应敏感度有利于增进福利。

Inevitably Governments around the world will face many problems that arise when the total amount of supply and demand runs counter to currency circulation and financial stability.Therefore,the fiscal and financial authorities use a mix of policy tools to achieve economic stability and coordinated development.How local government debt,as one of the important tools for macro-control,can avoid policy conflicts and maximize the effectiveness of the policy mix,is an important subject that needs in-depth study.By constructing the NK-DSGE model including financial friction,bond term and debt rules,this paper analyzes the monetary effects and transmission mechanism of local government debt,and discusses the optimal model of its coordination with the monetary policy,which provides theoretical basis for the macro-control policy.The findings are as follows:(1)For every 1% local government debt shock(given the bond duration of 5 years),the currency multiplier will be pushed up by 0.39%,and the monetary expansion effect will be produced;the longer the bond duration,the greater the expansion effect.(2)In the face of physical and financial shocks,the monetary policy adopts moderately tight reverse coordination in response to local government debt,which can effectively restrain its monetary expansion effect and better achieve economic stability and recovery.(3)Forbonds with longer duration,improving the risk response sensitivity of local government debt rules is conducive to improving welfare.